What a frustrating set of outcomes.
I mentioned it last week — and I refuse to give excuses because this is the nature of the game — but we have seen too many games fall to within a single point of the final spreads. Unfortunately, we have also landed on the wrong side of those games.
There is, however, reason for optimism.
The first area to which we can point is this imbalance in how we have lost to the spreads. Just last week alone, the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, and Chargers fit the aforementioned mold of teams playing to within one point of their spreads. We went 1-3 in those games, and one of them — New England — included an unacceptable safety to push us into the losing column.
Again, I don’t mention this to defend the picks. I mention it to point out that it is unlikely to always fall on the wrong side of those narrow scales.
The other positive angle comes from these spreads, too. If the numbers have been close, then it means we can trust them more than we have in the past. And, there has already been plenty of movement in this week’s set of games, even though the schedule is comparatively light.
We’ll take it because it means we have plenty of insight that can be gained from reading the numbers.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 21-25-1 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 43-48-2 (Last Week: 6-9)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
What an interesting situation. As I will write in at least one more blurb this weekend, I don’t always place a high value on the status of a starting quarterback in the National Football League. Still, the injury to Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars has a few layers.
For starters, Jacksonville is playing on a short week with a Thursday game that includes traveling to face the New Orleans Saints. The initial reports were promising for Lawrence, but will he be fully ready to go on Thursday night? And does it matter?
One short answer is