Every year around this time, I write the same thing: I can’t believe we are already one-quarter through the season.
This is when we start to see teams separate themselves and establish how they want to win games. At least, that’s what we are told.
It isn’t necessarily true.
Do we really need another week of action before we can figure out which teams are probably going to be fighting for a top seed or for the first overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft?
The reality is that, even though we are entering the second quarter, we have a decent idea as to how a team will operate. And so do the spreads.
Over the past two weeks, I’ve noticed a large number of games fall within a half-point of our final spreads. That’s not surprising if we take a random sample, but to have that many so quickly really does confirm that teams are playing to their numbers.
That’s a good thing. Because it’s our job to read those numbers.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 12-13-1 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 30-32-2 (Last Week: 8-7-1)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
I’ve written about this numerous times in the past, but I will always love Primetime games. It doesn’t matter if we are analyzing one that will be played in the current week or looking back to what we just saw, Primetime games provide an ideal setting for mistakes in perception. That is where we like to find value.
Think back to last week’s set of picks. Arguably the team that had appeared to be the