It’s a shame that Week 3 undid the momentum from Week 2, but it’s also the nature of the numbers. We had two games that lost against-the-spread by a half-point — at least, in this column, where it might have won elsewhere. Such is the nature of picking games.
The good news is that we can obviously move right back into the action and, this week, there are plenty of more reasonable numbers. There are currently just one or two double-digit spreads — based on where you look — and far fewer lopsided games at first glance.
At least, games that should play out in as lopsided a fashion as people think. And that’s where we get the bulk of our edge in Week 4.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 10-9-1 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 22-25-1 (Last Week: 6-10)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
I find it fascinating what has happened with the Detroit Lions in the collective eye of the football-watching world. This is the same franchise that was a laughingstock for years which then went on to hire a head coach that, to this day, I still reference as the man who told us would “bite kneecaps” at a press conference. Since that man took over as head coach of the team, the Lions are 14-22-1.
And yet, whenever the Lions win a game — or look like they could win their next game — general football fans fall in love all over again.
I know that part of the reason for this violent swing in sentiment is due to the popular belief that Detroit was an ideal ‘sleeper’ team heading into the season. Sitting at 2-1 with a win over the Chiefs on their resume has only strengthened this argument for the Lions.