Well, that felt good.
We knew it had to happen. We knew a good week was looming. We just could not have foreseen such a great week.
The irony is that much of what has failed us this year was exactly what worked in our favor in Week 14. Specifically, spreads were, once again close to the final margins-of-victory. We were just on the right side of them.
I won’t belabor the point or spend more time on it than necessary. We have a job to do, and that involves moving past Week 14 and all the byes. It’s the home stretch now.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 49-46-3 (Last Week: 4-1-1)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 104-98-6 (Last Week: 12-2-1)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
I track a lot of numbers and trends, but some are more subjective and artistic than others.
Take, for a perfect example, the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.
The former is about to play its sixth game with its interim head coach and has gone from back-to-back wins to three consecutive losses. How do the Raiders respond to that?
The latter is about to play its first game without its starting quarterback after learning that said passer will miss the remainder of the season. How do the Chargers respond to that?
We can’t track either of those using numbers. But we have to pay attention to them, anyway.
The good news is that there is a numbers-driven trend here.