I am amazed at how this season-long character trait has persisted. The spreads have simply been too close to the outcomes of the games, and it is remarkable.
Is it helpful? Not always. Is it a problem? Sometimes. But it is our job to read the numbers and find the stories they are telling. Here, we can accept that the stories being told are truthful. It’s nothing more than that.
Of course, we know that the spreads can’t always land on the right number. That would mean favorites dominate as a whole, and we general make our biggest strides when underdogs rise up and steal games.
As long as we know that such a move is looming, we can take advantage of it.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 45-45-2 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 92-96-5 (Last Week: 6-7)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week, we were treated to one of the best games of the year on Thursday Night Football. I suspect this week will not match that.
The New England Patriots — who have not scored double-digit points in a game since the first week of November — will travel to face a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is on one of the more historic strings of offensive ineptitude and will now be without its starting quarterback.
As of this writing, the over-under point total for the game is 30.
30.
Last week, nine teams scored at least 30 points, including both of the participants in Thursday Night Football.
In terms of analysis,