I have a close friend of mine who asks me regularly, “How did your picks do?” This year, I’ve given basically the same answer every time.
“They’ve been… fine.”
They haven’t been great, but they haven’t been terrible. They haven’t won nearly as much as we would like, but they also haven’t caused major panic or concern.
They have been, in a word, fine.
Of course, we want better than fine. We want consistent wins. But, we can only play what’s in front of us. And we will not stop trying to find those edges because we know that, somewhere, they are there waiting to be uncovered.
Every year, I lead this column by thanking you, the reader, for sticking around this deep into the season. This year is no different, but I want to also thank you for your understanding of the nature of this game. As I wrote, I don’t consider this a ‘bad’ year, but it simply hasn’t been good. The support I continue to receive is always heartwarming, even if it’s simply through the silence of letting the season play out without making a big deal about it. I sincerely appreciate it.
And I really do appreciate you. I can’t stress enough how special it is to know that I am typing words on my side of the screen and you will take them in on the other. It’s the only thing we want as writers, and I will never take for granted that you are out there completing this loop for me.
Thank you, as always, and Happy Thanksgiving!
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 38-39-2 (Last Week: 2-3-1)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 77-82-5 (Last Week: 7-6-1)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
I’ve written about this in the past but, as we drew nearer to a conclusion of certain games, I root for certain outcomes — as long as it doesn’t affect my current pick. In the case of the Detroit Lions, I can’t honestly say if I wanted them to finish off their comeback and win the game or lose outright — again, all within the confines of them losing their against-the-spread pick.
This matters because whatever Detroit was going to do at the end of the game would have an impact on how we viewed it on Thanksgiving. A loss and the Lions become the team that was caught by the Bears. A win — which is what happened — especially with the late surge, is going to have a completely different takeaway.
But, is that good? More specifically, is it predictable?
We know