If there’s a theme for a given week, I list it.
There’s a theme, and it’s an important one.
The spreads are moving aggressively.
We usually see this in the first week or two of a season where perception is so dramatic that it must shift numbers. Then, there’s a clam. It appears as if Week 11 is the time when the turbulence returns.
Only “turbulence” is a deceiving word. It gives the impression that these moves are volatile and unpredictable. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The moves are severe, but they are intentional.
One of the downsides of what we always face with this column is that it releases before some spreads start their moves. The good news is that we obviously had plenty of shifting by the time these picks were made. Therefore, many of them will involve reading those moves and acting on them now.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 36-36-1 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 70-76-4 (Last Week: 8-5-1)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
It’s time for our age-old commentary of, “We knew this would happen.”
We knew the Baltimore Ravens would lose to the Browns. We knew the Cincinnati Bengals would lose to the Texans. Both happened and, of course, we didn’t know they would, but we picked them and can view neither as a shocking outcome.
What about everyone else? How will the football-watching world react to Baltimore and Cincinnati losing on Sunday and then facing off on a short week? More specifically, does failing against the Texans or Browns no longer cost as much in terms of perception?
It’s something we need to consider.