In fairness to the football-watching world, we all knew we would be here.
Indeed, we didn’t “know” the Kansas City Chiefs would return to the Super Bowl in an attempt to defend their title, and we couldn’t “know” if the San Francisco 49ers would live up to their preseason hype, but we “knew” that, if we were forced to select one pair of teams as the matchup we would see in Super Bowl LVIII, this would have been one of the most popular choices.
It makes sense, of course. The aforementioned “hype” around the 49ers was legitimate. They weren’t a popular ‘sleeper’ — as I had labeled the Lions throughout this year — nor the upstart Texans. San Francisco had simply developed into one of the most stable franchises in the league, and it did so by building a system under head coach Kyle Shanahan that allowed it to thrive regardless of the quarterback.
That’s arguably the most interesting element of the 49ers’ success so far. And that’s where we’ll start when we dive into the pick.
Because we already know about the quarterback on the other side of the matchup. And we can easily see how a win on Sunday would boost Patrick Mahomes’ legacy even further.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 63-61-4 (Last Week: —)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 141-135-8 (Last Week: 1-1)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
I opened this year’s article slightly different than I have in the past. That’s because this is arguably the first time in a handful of years that we are not surprised at all by the two teams meeting in the Super Bowl. Surely, by the end of a given season, both participants of any Super Bowl make sense given the journey taken to get there, but it is important to remember what I wrote when starting this column. That is, we always knew the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs were built to win a title this year. We are simply watching the culmination of their respective journeys.
And that’s why I am starting with the quarterbacks.
Of course, it’s not exactly hard-hitting analysis to argue that quarterback play is one of the most important elements of any game, let alone the biggest of the season. But we can’t really compare San Francisco’s Brock Purdy to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. It’s not fair to either one.
What we can compare is each player to his expectation.
It’s not difficult to look back over prior seasons and recognize that