NFL Picks: 2023 NFC Full Season Predictions

It’s always fun.

No matter how stable or crazy a particular season appears when we first set eyes on it, we can always land on the same conclusion: the National Football League is always fun.

This year is no different.

In prior season, we had dramatic quarterback carousels where key players were changing teams at a mind-numbing rate. Then we had countless contract disputes.

This time, the focus is largely on one player. And he has emerged as the spotlight for both a team and, thanks to the television show, Hard Knocks, an entire league.

Of course, it isn’t all about Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. But that has been the central point from which many other storylines have branched.

The Denver Broncos shared some of the spotlight because of Rodgers. The rest of the AFC East has not.

Even the San Francisco 49ers are getting some attention loosely tied to the Jets as they appear to be the team that gets slotted into any potential Super Bowl conversation from the NFC side.

And how about that NFC? We went from a powerhouse of quarterbacks to endless question marks. If I polled every one of my readers for their top-five quarterbacks in the NFC, not only would the order be different for most lists, but I would expect wildly different names included at all.

It is, as always, a wild league.

And it should be fun.

Below are the full season predictions for the 2023 National Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesers Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals – 5-12, 4th in NFC West

Look at how far the Arizona Cardinals have fallen over the last calendar year. Coming off an 11-win season, the franchise was trying to sign its quarterback to a longterm deal. In doing so, it sent up a major red flag about his commitment. Whether or not it was actually the commitment that doomed Kyler Murray and last year’s offense — obviously, injuries played a major role — that “red flag” was enough to force us to pause before giving the team another winning record. Somehow, Arizona managed to play an even worse brand of football and finish near the bottom of the entire league’s standings.

That, alone, should give us a reason to be curious about the Cardinals. Their value is so depressed that it is probably unwise to cast them aside altogether. Regardless, the ceiling is so low that, even if Arizona clears the pathetic over-under win total, it isn’t going much farther.

Seattle Seahawks – 7-10, 3rd in NFC West

I don’t usually do this, but I am going to touch upon the NFC West as a whole for a moment. Starting with the Seattle Seahawks, last year’s reads were all a matter of being so obvious that we couldn’t ignore them. Seattle was supposed to be bad. The Rams were supposed to be good. These were such givens that, when writing about them and setting their projected numbers, it felt wrong to even consider a world in which the Defending Super Bowl Champions crumbled and the Seahawks — who traded away their franchise quarterback and then named Geno Smith the starter over the player they acquired in said trade — thrived.

One year later, we see further proof that we should never take the path most obvious.

That path is a little muddier this year. Is it not obvious to write that the Seahawks will regress after a near-perfect effort only landed the team nine wins?

That’s the reality of the situation. The Seahawks were obviously much better than anyone thought they would be, and the quarterback and head coach delivered to an extremely high level. It’s just that the level is their ceiling, and we can’t ask a team to match that bar in consecutive years.

Seattle does slide back down to make up for the ground it gained last year.

San Francisco 49ers – 10-7, 2nd in NFC West, Wild Card Berth

In sticking with the theme set about in the Seahawks’ blurb, we find San Francisco 49ers as the NFC West squad with probably the most ‘too obvious’ outcome. The 49ers should march to a division title. It’s the only path. It’s the obvious path.

Of course, the 49ers could — and probably should — be challenged by another team in the division, but its starting point is so far out ahead of the rest that even closing the gap won’t actually cause San Francisco to be passed. That’s the read, anyway.

But there is the chance that quarterback Brock Purdy simply isn’t ready to step in as the full-time starter — both physically and mentally — or that superstar running back Christian McCaffrey suffers another injury or that the Seahawks or Rams really do put together a big season and find enough wins to take the division.

And that’s why I led with writing about the NFC West in the Seahawks’ prediction. This division essentially works as a unit, and the pattern between all of them is quite clear. We have teams cast aside and teams given free passes to wins. Neither are true.

San Francisco still makes the playoffs, but only as a Wild Card team.

Los Angeles Rams – 11-6, NFC West Winner – Over 6.5 Wins (+110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

In carrying over the message from Seattle’s writeup one more time, we get to the team mentioned as the obvious choice to be a powerhouse last year. The Los Angeles Rams were arguably the biggest disappointment in the National Football League, going from a 12-5 season and a Super Bowl win to a 5-12 record. Regression was obvious and injuries were insurmountable, but the drop in production could only be described as ‘violent.’

Too violent.

Again, regression was going to be present for a team that performed so well, but doesn’t that indicate that a positive correction is in the works as it now looks to move back toward its mean?

The Rams are still dealing with some injuries — and the collective age of the roster suggests that more might be looming — but this is still a well-coached team with plenty of talent. There’s no reason to bury them with the Seahawks likely taking a back step and the Cardinals staying out of the picture.

The Rams surprise the football-watching world by snapping right back to a winning record and actually win the division.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4-13, 4th in NFC South

You’ll see it numerous times throughout these two season-long prediction articles — and again frequently throughout the year in my weekly columns — but I can’t shake the feeling that some teams are just too obvious to be good or bad.

It’s too obvious that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will crumble.

But, won’t they?

Arguably their best source of talent came from a quarterback who retired and then returned for one final season and eventually led his team to a division title. With a losing record. That’s clearly more an indictment on the NFC South than on the Buccaneers, themselves, but are we going to ask the division to find us another 8-9 winner? Absolutely not.

Tampa Bay should remain a stout defensive team with Todd Bowles still leading the way as head coach. But, as we have seen in his five full seasons as a head coach, he doesn’t actually win games. Four of those five years finished with a losing record, and his career winning percentage is .405.

The only real question is if the Buccaneers will completely implode and land the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft or put up a fight to hover around six or seven wins. I won’t be surprised if it’s the latter, but I’m not counting on it.

Atlanta Falcons