Once again, we couldn’t escape the power of the numbers. This time, however, they worked in our favor.
We had three more wins in the playoffs, which already makes it a positive outcome with only three games left in the postseason, but the story isn’t about us. It is, once again, about the numbers.
The spreads were incredibly close to their final outcomes. And, when they weren’t, they still told part of the story. The Lions were favorites of 6-to-7 points depending on when and where we saw the number. They won by eight. The over-under for Houston and Baltimore? 44.5. The two teams combined for 44 points.
This has been the trend all season, but we have also seen enough proof that, when value exists, we sometimes have to take it — of course, as long as it’s not a ‘trap.’
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 63-61-4 (Last Week: 2-0)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 140-134-8 (Last Week: 3-1)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Throughout the regular season, I will frequently watch the conclusion of a game and start to plan ahead for what I will expect from those two teams in their following contests. It’s often a good way to gauge the shift from what I just saw to what I expect others to mistakenly take away from it.
It’s different in the playoffs.
Indeed, I take that same approach and have the same mindset, but the difference — and, occasionally, the problem — is that we have fewer games each week. We only have so many options and places where we can find value buried.
The game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens is the perfect example. Because we could easily walk away from both of their prior respective wins and conclude that each one is worthy to be in the AFC Championship Game. We can also conclude that there was immediate value with one team.
Had it been shared with 15 other games on a weekend, I still think people would have noticed that the