NFL Picks: 2023 AFC Full Season Predictions

It’s always fun.

No matter how stable or crazy a particular season appears when we first set eyes on it, we can always land on the same conclusion: the National Football League is always fun.

This year is no different.

In prior season, we had dramatic quarterback carousels where key players were changing teams at a mind-numbing rate. Then we had countless contract disputes.

This time, the focus is largely on one player. And he has emerged as the spotlight for both a team and, thanks to the television show, Hard Knocks, an entire league.

Of course, it isn’t all about Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. But that has been the central point from which many other storylines have branched.

The Denver Broncos shared some of the spotlight because of Rodgers. The rest of the AFC East has not.

Even the San Francisco 49ers are getting some attention loosely tied to the Jets as they appear to be the team that gets slotted into any potential Super Bowl conversation from the NFC side.

And how about that NFC? We went from a powerhouse of quarterbacks to endless question marks. If I polled every one of my readers for their top-five quarterbacks in the NFC, not only would the order be different for most lists, but I would expect wildly different names included at all.

It is, as always, a wild league.

And it should be fun.

Below are the full season predictions for the 2023 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesers Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.

AFC East

Miami Dolphins – 6-11, 4th in AFC East

Wherever you look, you will see the same comment about the Miami Dolphins: they have the widest range of outcomes. That type of open-ended analysis always makes me want to find the edge. Because there is certainly an edge when the opportunities are limited to ‘everything.’

The problem is that Miami’s uncertain outlook comes from uncertain inputs. Will quarterback Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? Is he even good enough to lead a team deep into the playoffs? Can we believe in the head coach? Does it matter that the team was 8-3 at one point last year?

This many open questions should lead to most people — including myself and those making the odds — erring on the side of caution. That isn’t the case. The over-under win total is at 9.5, where a winning season doesn’t even clear the ‘over.’ Put another way, that’s a high number for a team that could finish 6-11 and surprise no one. And that’s before we factor in how difficult the AFC East is.

This is either incredibly telling — where Miami has double-digit wins — or an opportunity to have some cushion with the likelihood that everything the Dolphins need to go their way simply doesn’t.

New England Patriots – 9-8, 3rd in AFC East

The New England Patriots are in a difficult position. Their name value — and, obviously, historically great head coach — give them an opportunity to remain afloat even with sudden quarterback controversies. The state of the AFC, however, makes it difficult for any misstep to go unpunished.

Therein lies the problem with New England heading into 2023. The team doesn’t appear good enough to leapfrog the other Wild Card hopefuls, and that means that, even if the Patriots were to push for a winning record, it probably won’t be enough.

New England shouldn’t fall flat on its face this year, but there are too many other squads that will prevent it from surging into a playoff berth.

New York Jets – 10-7, 2nd in AFC East, Wild Card Berth – Over 9.5 Wins (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

What can I possibly write about the New York Jets? Not only are they the talk of the town, but, as I have made abundantly clear over the years, they are the team to which I have pledged my allegiance. Silly me. Despite my ill-advised actions of falling in love with heartbreak, I have always made it a point to remove my fandom from the equation when assessing the Jets while still being openly honest about my love for them. As I always write, I find it important to lead with my fandom around this team so that it is not an underlying concern for you, the reader.

There is no other season I can remember where this disclaimer is more important. The Jets are going to be better in 2023 than they have been in recent memory, and there is hype that has ballooned to a frightening level. This is, of course, why I had to write about New York as my first team. It won’t slot into the first position of my article — so it is almost guaranteed that you will have read about other franchises first — but this will undoubtedly be one of my longest writeups about a team.

The irony? There actually isn’t that much to say about the Jets. We know that the addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers carries tremendous potential — it really does move them from a fringe playoff team at best to a Super Bowl contender — but we also know it is impractical to expect every cog in the machine to work perfectly and deliver the one-out-of-thirty-two result of a Super Bowl win.

What happens if Rodgers gets hurt?

What happens if the offensive line struggles?

What happens if the defense, which is simply assumed to remain one of the best in the league, suffers from natural regression?

The last one is key. Essentially every discussion about the Jets has involved some sort of throwaway comment about how “the defense will be excellent” as a given. Nothing in sports is a given. Should New York have an elite defense? Absolutely. Will it? Only if we expect it to turn from the worst in the league in the yards allowed to top-five in that category in just a year’s time and hold that ranking. That’s asking a lot, especially from a head coach that hasn’t won anything just yet.

Let’s not throw away that last comment either. Clearly, New York has been bad since Robert Salah took over as the team’s head coach, but there are levels of bad where a staff can still find wins. Salah and the Jets haven’t done that. In two seasons, Salah is 11-23 with double-digit losses in both. We are asking for him to learn how to win games in the National Football League at a much better rate all while navigating the media frenzy that has consumed New York.

It’s just too much.

And those who make the odds know it.

The Jets won seven games last year and are being talked about as a true threat to win the Super Bowl. Yet their over-under win total is 9.5. In the AFC where even ten games might not get a team into the playoffs, the number is insulting enough that we have to take notice, especially after laying out the above case.

The counterargument, however, is that we have actually seen this play out in the past.

The Rams added quarterback Matthew Stafford a few years ago and immediately won the Super Bowl. Is that the expectation here? Absolutely not. But it is worth mentioning that I picked the Rams to win the Super Bowl that season because of the addition of Stafford. It would be uncharacteristic for me to look at the Jets’ roster, add Rodgers to the mix, and then proclaim that the team won’t make the playoffs.

New York earns its first postseason berth in more than a decade.

Buffalo Bills – 11-6, AFC East Winner

Over the past handful of years, I have been aggressive in selling the Buffalo Bills. It hasn’t worked. Buffalo has remained afloat even with the departure of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and the prior struggles of quarterback Josh Allen before he emerged into the player we see today.

Now that the Bills have established themselves as one of the best teams in the AFC, I find it strange that they aren’t getting the same respect heading into 2023. Indeed, the division is improved and the addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the Jets puts the pressure on Buffalo to repeat as AFC East champions, but why shouldn’t the Bills win the division again? They haven’t dropped off on their own.

Granted, the entire AFC reads like a powerhouse, but the general tone of the football-watching world is that Buffalo appears to be on the decline. Maybe, but let’s not act like the team is going to vanish altogether.

This is still Buffalo’s division to lose. They win it again.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns – 8-9, 4th in AFC North

The Cleveland Browns are one of the sneakiest teams in the league. If we were to believe that the over-under win total tells a story — and we do — then the 9.5 is high enough to take notice. That isn’t a throwaway number. That’s challenging the Browns to win double-digit games.

The path to Cleveland doing so is quite clear. It would be little more than the team’s rushing attack remaining solid and quarterback Deshaun Watson playing well now that he has a full year with the team. Both of those outcomes are completely plausible.

I’m just not so sure they happen.

The high over-under gives us a great opportunity to target the downside if Cleveland were to slip up at all. And, given the franchise’s history, I’m not sure why we would expect anything else. The Browns have made aggressive moves for years and failed. They have mismanaged almost everything since long before I was writing my picks publicly. I don’t see any reason to trust that this year is different.

And yet, that seems to be more of the common thought than the ‘contrarian’ one. With the Ravens and Bengals getting the attention, the Browns — and, again, their sneakily high over-under — are being completely ignore. There is some value with buying into Cleveland, but it’s actually more of a deterrent to pick against them than anything else.

The Browns shouldn’t explode and surge to the top of a crowded division, but they are dangerous enough to make some noise if everything goes well. I’m staying away, and I’m keeping the projection on the lower side, but I am being cautious while doing so.

Baltimore Ravens