Over the years, I have found that I truly love the last week of the regular season. The National Football League’s decision to put all divisional games in the final week has paid off tremendously, as we constantly see proof that teams want to win even when there is nothing on-the-line — and, in the case of the Houston Texans, even when winning is technically a bad outcome.
This level of competition also leads to extra care in the spread. Those who make the odds had to be even more cautious than usual when it came to setting the numbers, as they could not take the risk of ignoring potential news. Maybe one slipped through the cracks with a team like the Baltimore Ravens — which was also following extenuating circumstances with their opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals — but the majority of spreads were extremely telling.
That won’t be the case in the playoffs. In addition to knowing the final records for each team, we have seeds and home-field advantages to consider. We have a general idea of which teams will be expected to win and which can be approached with the idea of an ‘upset,’ but few spreads should appear shocking to the general football fan.
That doesn’t mean said fan will be right.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2022 Season: 53-51-5 (Last Week: 6-1)
(2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (8-Year Total: 464-389-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2022 Season: 138-124-9 (Last Week: 11-5)
(2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (8-Year Total: 1121-976-58)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
The National Football League got it right. It put the Lions in the final game of the regular season even with the potential that they would be eliminated before kickoff. That’s exactly what happened, and Detroit did not miss a beat, playing its typically aggressive style of football and pulling off the outright ‘upset’ even with nothing to gain. In fact, I wrote on Twitter that the Lions playing for nothing arguably made them even more dangerous to the Packers, and that appeared to be the case toward the end of the contest.
Detroit’s victory sent the Seattle Seahawks to the postseason, but we shouldn’t be so narrow-minded about this outcome. The Seahawks earned the right to be here and, at one point, were among the best teams in the NFC. Certainly, they have fallen, but their 9-8 record is both a testament to what they accomplished and a surprise to nearly everyone.
What’s not a surprise?