It may not seem like it, but we are definitely starting to get a better feel for the state of the National Football League in 2022. Some have commented that the quality of football is worse than it has been in recent years and others are pointing out that we have had plenty of close games.
Whatever the underlying storyline is, we can see some paths starting to form more clearly.
What’s most important is that a large number of games this week feature spreads that also align with these paths. They aren’t built on overreaction, and it is an indication that we are moving into the next phase of the season.
The first quarter is definitively over. Now, we aim to head into the locker room at halftime with a solid lead.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2022 Season: 16-17-2 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (8-Year Total: 464-389-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2022 Season: 51-39-4 (Last Week: 7-7)
(2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (8-Year Total: 1121-976-58)
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
We have quite an interesting matchup on Thursday Night Football, but for no other reason than how the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals relate to us and this column’s set of picks. That is, both teams were “confidence picks” last week, and both failed.
Normally, if the setup were right and the outcome did not align with it, I consider going right back to the team. Clearly, that can’t be the case here, but it does present a somewhat difficult twist. How do we gauge the Saints after a near-win over the Bengals? And what about the Cardinals, who barely put up any fight in a double-digit loss to the Seahawks?
Which side of the scale is more heavily weighted?
What’s most amazing is that the questions don’t end there. The teams aren’t even perfuming to how they want to play. The Cardinals want to be an offensive juggernaut, but are averaging just 16 points-per-game over the last four weeks. The Saints want to win with defense, but have allowed the fourth-most points-per-game. And at 2-4, neither team can even consider what they have done to this point a success.
There is some good news, however. Both teams may