The change to seventeen regular-season games obviously throws off the math, but we are now approximately one-quarter through the season. In the past, that was a key cutoff point, as we started to see clear trends forming, whether it was for a given team, player, or the overview of the league itself.
This year, we saw the change begin in Week 4. The spreads for many games were quite close to the final margin-of-victory, but there were a few ‘traps’ that simply didn’t hit. In looking ahead to Week 5, we see that those who make the odds are confident enough to lay even more ‘traps’ in an effort to capture those who benefited from last week’s outcomes.
As always, we aim to be ahead of the pack and follow what the numbers tell us.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2022 Season: 11-10-1 (Last Week: 1-4-1)
(2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (8-Year Total: 464-389-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2022 Season: 36-25-3 (Last Week: 6-8-2)
(2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (8-Year Total: 1121-976-58)
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
We’ve had our share of excitement during the main Sunday schedule on a regular basis to start the year, but the Primetime games, as a whole, have left plenty to be desired. Thursday night’s matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos does little to ease these concerns.
Then again, we have these games in front of us so that we can capitalize on the lazy approach of others. And we can already see how that is playing out via the spread.
Since its open, the number has bounced between three and three-and-a-half points. What’s the most likely view of this?