In a moment of complete honesty, I will admit that I was nervous about last week. It wasn’t likely that the picks would crumble, but there was the element of ‘too much and still not enough.’ I felt as if there were decent setups everywhere, but only a handful of great ones. It was simply unlikely that they would all go in our favor.
Naturally, they didn’t all win. But what an outstanding week it was!
I start with this because it highlights the reality that many people don’t want to admit: if we knew the best games — the ‘locks’ — then we would only play them! Period. We’re not here to unequivocally know the outcome of a single matchup and then bury it within 15 others. We do the best with what’s in front of us and we keep aiming for small steps forward.
Last week was a big step, and it came about organically. The task now? Keep that momentum going in the same direction.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2022 Season: 10-6 (Last Week: 3-2)
(2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (8-Year Total: 464-389-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2022 Season: 30-17-1 (Last Week: 10-5-1)
(2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (8-Year Total: 1121-976-58)
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
At the start of the season, if we were to have looked ahead to the Week 4 Thursday night matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins and were told that one team was 3-0 and the other was 1-2, most people would assign those records to the wrong team. On one side of the matchup, I certainly would have been wrong. But the other? That has played out exactly as expected.
The