I know I get excited at the start of every football season, but I always follow it with the comment that it isn’t necessarily the best week of the year.
Week 2 is.
This is it. This is the opportunity to take advantage of everything that has happened this season. Because “everything” spans exactly one game. And that’s typically as far back as most football fans will go with their assessments.
I always urge anyone who will listen to remember how they felt about a certain team before the season began. If you put serious thought into what a team could or should be — not just the surface-deep “they were good last year, so why wouldn’t they be good this year?” — then you cannot and should not waver because of one game.
Others will.
That’s where we make our best move.
Week 2 is always based on overreaction. And it is because of overreaction that we can find the massive gap between reality and expectation.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2022 Season: 3-2 (Last Week: 3-2)
(2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (8-Year Total: 464-389-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2022 Season: 9-7 (Last Week: 9-7)
(2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (8-Year Total: 1121-976-58)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Through one week of the 2022 season, we were treated with one Primetime game that produced excitement. Indeed, the early slate on Sunday was packed with great finishes but, even the games that looked like they would be great on paper turned out to be extreme disappointments.
Please don’t fail us again.
Thursday Night Football presents an absolutely terrific matchup between two powerhouses in arguably the most difficult division in the sport. In fact, because Denver and Las Vegas both lost in Week 1, the winner of the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs automatically slides into sole possession of first place in the AFC West. More importantly, it gives the advantage in the form of a potential tiebreaker down-the-road.
Regardless of the playoff implications — it is only Week 2, after all — the battle that is set out in front of us is highlighted by exactly one word: offense. The Chiefs have it. The Chargers have it. And there is no level of defense that will get in the way of us seeing it on Thursday night.
Sadly, it doesn’t work that way.
We’ve been down this road too many times to assume that, just because the matchup tells us that a specific outcome is likely, it does not mean that is exactly what will happen. Both teams have outstanding quarterbacks and excellent offenses, but can we be sure that some of what Kansas City did to Arizona in Week 1 isn’t from an improved Chiefs defense? And what about the Chargers? They actually might have the best overall defensive group in the National Football League.
The point is that spread favors a home team that is more apt to explode with points than almost anyone else. But it isn’t necessarily a small number. It’s more than a field goal, and it has already grown since its open. But as soon as we consider that Los Angeles could both slow down and keep pace with Kansas City, we can recognize that the spread is too big. It’s disrespectful to Los Angeles.
The Chiefs remain a team that I am looking to continually ‘buy’ throughout the year, but every matchup should be assessed separately, and the Chargers are being overlooked. Kansas City does secure the victory, but only by two points as Los Angeles beats the spread.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers (+4, -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
While the main focus of Week 2 is almost always the immediate snap judgments we can draw from Opening Day, there are still some trends that we see later in the year that can be applied to the early-season matchups. One of those can be found right away with the game between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns.
Find me anyone