Every year, I write about how unique the last week of the regular season is. Clearly, this one has a different feel.
Of course, there is the usual sense of the unknown surrounding which players will take the field and for how long, but the obvious storyline is the health and status of Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin. The entire football-watching world collectively held its breath the moment that he went down and, quite frankly, I’m not sure anyone has exhaled since.
This pause in action has also led to a pause in thought. How are we supposed to proceed as fans? And as people?
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from this tragedy, it is that our passion for sports can be put aside when the moment calls for it. There was arguably no bigger Monday Night Football game in history — at least, in terms of combined win totals — prior to last week’s matchup, and everyone was watching. Fans packed the building and were ready to support their team with blood, sweat, and tears.
In an instant, everything changed. The tears were shed for each other.
Let’s not forget that we watch these games and pour our hearts into our teams because we care. And caring about anything gives us the opportunity for both joy and pain.
In either instance, we aren’t alone.
We saw it in the linking of arms among fans of opposing teams. We saw it in the countless donations that have poured into Hamlin’s charity. And we see it in recognition that, when needed, we can be more than fans of a football team.
We can be fans of each other.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2022 Season: 47-50-5 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (8-Year Total: 464-389-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2022 Season: 127-119-9 (Last Week: 10-5)
(2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (8-Year Total: 1121-976-58)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
For as much as Week 17 stuck to the script that was laid out in last week’s column — many of the games went in our direction, even if the spread barely missed — there was at least one surprising outcome. That was the Las Vegas Raiders competing to the end against the 49ers.
It wasn’t a knock on backup-turned-starting quarterback Jarret Stidham nor praise of the 49ers’ defense, but simply the mismanagement of basically everything from head coach Josh McDaniels that led to this eye-opening result. It naturally leads to the follow-up question of, “Was Derek Carr part of the problem?”
No. He wasn’t. But let’s be fair to possibility. For the sake of considering all options, let’s commit to the premise that Carr’s absence made the team better. Because that now leads to another question.
“Can Stidham do it again?”
Last week featured the first start of Stidham’s career. Statistically, it was impressive — 365 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions — but he will now be asked to repeat that performance against a division rival whose defense has quietly slipped into the top-half of the league for yards allowed.
Kansas City has made it a habit of taking care of its business under head coach Andy Reid when the stakes are raised and, with the top seed in the AFC still in-play, the Chiefs will not miss the opportunity to take control of their game.
They win by seventeen points and cover the spread.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-9, -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
It could not have played out any more perfectly. In fact, it was such a nice setup that I was concerned it was a ‘trap’ within a ‘trap.
The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars were playing meaningless games in Week 17 in anticipation of the season finale that would decide the AFC South champion. Because of this, there was an assumption by many about how each team would handle their respective ‘warm-up’ games.
The Titans were playing on a short week — Thursday Night Football — and had injuries everywhere. There was absolutely no benefit to Tennessee pushing its players through that situation. They lost convincingly — by the end, anyway — and did so on national television.
The Jaguars were in the opposite position. They have health and momentum and, most importantly, inexperience. It was imperative that they play well in a meaningless game so that they can enter this week with everyone on the same page. They won convincingly, and did so in a game with a small spread because of the possibility of a ‘trap.’
It would have been fine for either team to break away from what we expected, but both going in the right direction — which, as the final box to check, represent opposite directions — has helped make this an ideal combination. The perception is all in Jacksonville’s favor, but the gameplan favors Tennessee.
And the spread is giving us an amazing opportunity to take advantage of it.
I’ve written about this countless times, but the Titans almost always show up when it matters most. They are well-coached and have proven to be one of the toughest teams to beat over the long haul. The Jaguars have made massive strides this year — and I was one of the most aggressive in ‘buying’ them before the season — but they just knocked off Tennessee less than a month ago and have only allowed six total points over the last two weeks. This has been an outstanding run by Jacksonville, but it’s about to come to an end.
The Titans win by a field goal and beat the spread.
Confidence Pick: Tennessee Titans (+6.5, -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
I found the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons to be one of the more intriguing for Week 18. We have