I always mention the trends that I see forming in a particular week of picks, and I have noted two throughout my writing. The first is the amount of times we can go back to a team that has recently failed us — it is one of my favorite setups.
The second is one that I thought was long-gone. That is, overreaction.
Overreaction has returned, and it is so powerful that it reminded me directly of Week 2 — and all Week 2’s throughout the years where we actively look for the football-watching world to have collectively changed its mind about a player or team.
Maybe that’s not an accident. Last week was the first in the second-half of the year. Perhaps, we are in a makeshift Week 2 where we can take advantage of how far the perceptions have moved.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2022 Season: 25-31-2 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (8-Year Total: 464-389-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2022 Season: 76-68-6 (Last Week: 6-8)
(2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (8-Year Total: 1121-976-58)
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
As always, it’s amazing what one game does.
In fairness to us, this wasn’t just “one game” for the Green Bay Packers. It was “one game” after “one game” after “one game” and so on. We had been waiting and, in a sense, pleading to see the best that the Packers could be, and their fourth-quarter comeback against the Cowboys was the moment we had expected all year.
Amazingly enough, we saw this same outcome over the last few weeks, but with a different team.