I always go back and reread the prior year’s version of this article to get a better sense of what I need to provide. After all, I write my weekly picks column in such a relatively short timeframe that, once I get into a rhythm, it doesn’t stop for months. To look at the postseason is an annual exercise and, this time, it led to extreme irony.
Last year, I specifically wrote that it might be one of the best playoff fields in years.
This year, I am horrified by the possibility of the NFC producing a winner.
In fairness to all sides, the AFC is absolutely loaded, and even the last-minute division winner of the Jacksonville Jaguars leads to an exciting story and quarterback. But again, the NFC is frightening, where one has to emerge and will have the privilege of competing for a championship.
The good news is that none of this is surprising. Even when I was writing my preseason articles months ago, I struggled with assigning playoff spots to either conference for different reasons. The AFC had too many viable options, while the NFC didn’t have enough. Now, we’re here, and we’re about to find out what the last 19 weeks have done to each team’s perception and overall value for the next month.
NFL Odds to Win Super Bowl LVII – Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook via TheLines.com:
1st Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (3.5 to 1)
2nd Seed – Buffalo Bills (4 to 1)
2nd Seed – San Francisco 49ers (5 to 1)
1st Seed – Philadelphia Eagles (5.5 to 1)
3rd Seed – Cincinnati Bengals (8.5 to 1)
5th Seed – Dallas Cowboys (12 to 1)
5th Seed – Los Angeles Chargers (20 to 1)
4th Seed – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28 to 1)
3rd Seed – Minnesota Vikings (35 to 1)
6th Seed – Baltimore Ravens (35 to 1)
4th Seed – Jacksonville Jaguars (50 to 1)
6th Seed – New York Giants (55 to 1)
7th Seed – Miami Dolphins (60 to 1)
7th Seed – Seattle Seahawks (70 to 1)
Every year, I make the initial move to knock out a few teams that don’t appear to be long for the playoffs, even if their odds are excellent and the value is there. Specifically, the value needs to be enough to warrant the risk. Immediately, the New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, and Seattle Seahawks will be sliced, each for different, but similar reasons. The Giants lack the weapons in the aerial attack to step up and deliver when the team inevitably needs to throw to win. The Dolphins are intriguing because they are so explosive on offense, but they have been wildly inconsistent and streaky this year — and that’s not even including the status of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Finally, the Seahawks have been one of the best stories of the year and are well-coached with a quarterback that has played to an extremely high level. There’s potential with Seattle, but we saw how the team couldn’t sustain its performance without a massive regression. They wouldn’t be able to survive that type of dip in January.
Normally, I would move to the next tier of teams from the bottom-half of the odds list and identify some with value, but I find it more important to trim the list with teams that I expect to disappoint. The irony is that, in past years, I have written about teams at the top of the list being overvalued, but that isn’t the case. The actual numbers appear to be fair, as well as the odds relative to the seeding. Still, there are two that I will trim because I simply don’t expect them to win the championship. The first is the