I can never contain my excitement for a new season. It grips me earlier each year, and I have to actively force myself to wait at times.
I can wait no longer.
These season-long prediction articles have become a staple for me and my preparation for a new year. They are the foundation upon which most picks are built. The best part? They have been excellent historically.
Over the past two years, these articles produced a record of 18-11-1. And last year, alone, the actual against-the-spread picks went a whopping 158-126-2.
That is not a coincidence.
The icing on the cake was that, for the first time that I can remember, I even picked the Super Bowl winner correctly prior to the season.
2021 was clearly a tremendous year for the picks, but 2022’s encore has been in development for months. It has finally arrived.
Below are the full season predictions for the 2022 National Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caeser’s Sportsbook — formerly William Hill Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks – 4-13, 4th in NFC West
I try never to take the obvious outlook on anything with sports and, for that reason, I will absolutely consider that I could be wrong. Regardless, for as much as I have argued that quarterback Russell Wilson is not only one of the greatest to have played the game but also the singular reason that the Seattle Seahawks have remained afloat, then I need to commit to his departure being the singular reason why the team will sink.
Of course, that is the obvious takeaway of the trade, and we can even see how the franchise appears to be entering a “rebuilding” phase. It is probably too aggressive to bury the Seahawks entirely — I would have to imagine the low over-under win total is based entirely on the reaction to Wilson being traded away — but there doesn’t appear to be a path for many wins for this team.
San Francisco 49ers – 8-9, 3rd in NFC West
The San Francisco 49ers made this easy for me.
I was on the fence about how to handle San Francisco heading into 2022. The team was clearly infatuated with quarterback Trey Lance to the point that they drafted him with the third overall pick despite already having a quarterback with whomthey were clearly infatuated.
Which one is it, then? Did the team love Lance or incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo? The answer could be “both.” But it really can’t. This isn’t a dual-running back set or even a closer-by-committee in baseball. This is the most important position in the sport, and there could only be one of them.
The 49ers played this same game last year. They named Garoppolo the starter but insisted that Lance would be on the field. If we’re looking at records, then it worked. If we’re looking toward the future, then we should pause in the present. Because we’re here. We’re at the point where it’s all about to break down for the team.
San Francisco made a bold decision in trading for Garoppolo and announcing that he was the answer. It then made a bold decision by drafting Lance and announcing that he was the answer. A third bold decision came about when the team announced that it would trade Garoppolo. And then a fourth, when the team restructured Garoppolo’s deal to keep him as Lance’s backup after no trade materialized.
This isn’t going to work.
Forget about the talent of either player — which is where it is frustrating because I do believe in head coach Kyle Shanahan and his ability to bring out the best in either player. Focus, instead, at how the group of players will be asked to thrive around Lance or Garoppolo. The entire team needs to believe in the younger, unproven option while the team’s former leader — who will be healthy, even if he isn’t now — sits on the sideline. As soon as Lance goes through the natural struggles that are inherent to a full season, the question will be asked internally. “Why isn’t Garoppolo starting?”
The 49ers earned plenty of credit from the football-watching world over the past few years by acting with conviction on their beliefs. Now, we see that “conviction” was actually more “snap judgments,” and it has landed the team in a position where it will be punished for even the most acceptable missteps.
Arizona Cardinals – 8-9, 2nd in NFC West
Volatile and fragile. Throughout the process of researching the Arizona Cardinals, those were the only two words that kept popping into my mind. “Volatile” because there is a wide array of options, and most of them are explosive in one direction or another. “Fragile” because anything less than perfection in specific areas is going to cause the team to crash.
One of the many interesting storylines of this past offseason was the Cardinals’ struggle to commit fully to quarterback Kyler Murray. It wasn’t the potential contract dispute that made it “interesting,” however. It was that Arizona inadvertently told the world that it doesn’t fully believe in Murray, especially as someone who puts in the time to learn his craft.
Is any of it true? Probably. But maybe not. It doesn’t really matter. Murray will have a bigger spotlight on him than usual, and he can thank his own organization for that.
The irony is that Murray, as a player, is equally volatile. He goes through moments where he appears unstoppable and then shows that he must make better decisions in the future. The other problem is that his receiving corps is going to look quite different at the start of 2022, which includes a suspension for superstar DeAndre Hopkins.
I’m always in support of targeting a team or player that has too many negative storylines, but we saw what happens when the metaphorical stars are not aligned for this team after Arizona went from 7-0 and 10-2 to a Wild Card berth last year. It’s also extremely unlikely that running back James Conner carries his ridiculous touchdown rate into this season. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, even though there are some avenues to a good year, too many point to a downturn in 2022.
Los Angeles Rams – 12-5, NFC West Winner
The Los Angeles Rams are as standard and straightforward as it gets. And that does not make me feel comfortable.
The Rams are, of course, the defending Super Bowl champions. But that comes with responsibilities. Namely, the organization has to make sure that it continues to grow and does not become complacent because it just had the most success possible for a team. It appears as if Los Angeles did well in this area, but it then needs to fight the natural regression of entering a season after reaching the pinnacle of a sport.
Oddly enough, it looks like they might get help from the rest of the division.
Last year, it was obvious that the NFC West was going to be one of the best groups of teams in the National Football League. It did not disappoint, sending three squads to the playoffs. Fast-forwarding to today, we can make an argument that every single team — including the Rams — is worse than its 2021 version. It feels odd to write this, but it looks like an example of “someone has to win the division” more than “a powerhouse where only one can survive.” Put another way, each team has a path to a lower ceiling in the regular season, but the Rams’ drop-off is probably the smallest of the group.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints – 7-10, 4th in NFC South – Under 8.5 Wins (+110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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