I can never contain my excitement for a new season. It grips me earlier each year, and I have to actively force myself to wait at times.
I can wait no longer.
These season-long prediction articles have become a staple for me and my preparation for a new year. They are the foundation upon which most picks are built. The best part? They have been excellent historically.
Over the past two years, these articles produced a record of 18-11-1. And last year, alone, the actual against-the-spread picks went a whopping 158-126-2.
That is not a coincidence.
The icing on the cake was that, for the first time that I can remember, I even picked the Super Bowl winner correctly prior to the season.
2021 was clearly a tremendous year for the picks, but 2022’s encore has been in development for months. It has finally arrived.
Below are the full season predictions for the 2022 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caeser’s Sportsbook — formerly William Hill Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.
AFC East
New York Jets – 6-11, 4th in AFC East
I make it a point to always pay attention to how the rest of the country feels about the New York Jets on a yearly basis. Because of my own fandom for the team — which I always discuss openly, but also make a point to never let it influence my picks — I know how the local area thinks about them. But football fans aren’t only found in New Jersey and New York.
This year, it felt a little different outside of the Jets’ home region. It felt like they were, in a word, “interesting.” I like interesting for any team. It means that there will be extra perception directed their way, and perception is what drives this game.
The news that quarterback Zach Wilson will miss the entire preseason and possibly — probably — Opening Day is actually uneventful for the big picture of the team. Either New York was going to be excellent anyway and the loss of Wilson for a short time will only lower their ceiling slightly or the team was not heading the playoffs anyway. Most likely, it was the latter.
The Jets have definitely made improvements from last year’s squad that won a pitiful four games, but between the unknown that is Wilson’s development, his overall career arc that still leaves plenty to be desired, and the starting point for a team that constantly lacks direction, the path to a winning season was already going to be rocky. Losing Wilson’s exhibition games and some on-field action is obviously going to hurt, but I’m not so sure it really matters. If anything, the fact that the Jets had caught the attention of other fans means that the over-under win total is probably going to react too aggressively. Because there was some interest in New York, the negative aura has probably now pushed the number where it is too low. The value might actually be on the ‘over.’
Miami Dolphins – 8-9, 3rd in AFC East
The Miami Dolphins are all over the place. They were one of the easiest teams for me to sell prior to last year, and they started out as perfectly as I could have wanted. Nearly halfway through the season, Miami was 1-7.
The Dolphins finished the year 9-8.
And then fired their head coach.
Ignore the value of said head coach, the 1-7 start, and the 8-1 finish. Each has its narrative individually, but the key takeaway is that Miami is erratic.
For awhile, I thought that would help. I was looking to buy back into the Dolphins heading into 2022 largely because there would be some stability for the team. But that does not appear to be the case. Miami brought in the 49ers’ former offensive coordinator and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, both of whom are perceived upgrades but don’t necessarily fit with the current squad. Specifically, every piece of news that we hear out of Miami involves questions about the longterm viability of Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback.
A deep threat wide receiver and a head coach known for running the football are not necessarily going to help answer that question.
Perhaps that’s unfair. We don’t know what we will get from any of the pieces of this puzzle. But that, instead, is the reason to be wary of Miami. The Dolphins play quite a difficult schedule and have already shown a propensity for wild outcomes. There is no reason to believe that the team suddenly surges up the standings and improves on last year’s winning record.
Buffalo Bills – 9-8, 2nd in AFC East
Football is a zero-sum game. For every winner, there’s a loser.
Years ago, I wrote about Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and, in doing so, I used all the negative buzzwords imaginable. “Overrated.” “Inaccurate.” “Bad.” Maybe the last was a bit of a stretch — and certainly not an objective comment — but the first two were based on some levels of reason. Allen was overrated, and he certainly was inaccurate. Then, something changed.
I am probably the latest converter to accept Allen as an upper-tier quarterback, but it’s because I remain aware of how bad — yes, bad — he really was. The organization and coaching staff changed him, however, and he is clearly a different player now.
That’s largely thanks to former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.
If the Giants are gaining value because of Daboll, then the Bills must lose said value.
The reality is that the AFC East is probably going to be more crowded this year than in 2021. The Bills won’t completely go away, but they will be pushed by the Patriots and Dolphins. In doing so and, in combination with inflated expectations, we can see the path to a slightly ‘down’ year.
The Bills are good, but any step backward will cost them in a deep AFC.
New England Patriots – 10-7, AFC East Winner – Over 8.5 Wins (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Was anyone actually surprised? Future Hall-of-Fame head coach Bill Belichick had one year in which the New England Patriots were rebuilding and then promptly returned to the playoffs on the back of a double-digit win season. This cannot be shocking in any way.
And it isn’t. The perception around the Patriots appears to be aligned with what happened and what is expected next. That is, New England returned to some level of prominence — of course, not the Super Bowl-winning level, but enough to gain respect — and now enters a new season with similar expectations.
The problem is that everything about the Patriots appears to be calm and quiet, and that includes the over-under win total. There were no major offseason moves that caught everyone’s attention, and we are either about to see a team that is largely overlooked or an uncharacteristic mediocre campaign. Both of those feel unlikely given the name value and historical patterns, and I am looking for another playoff berth in the second year of the quarterback and head coach combination.
AFC North
Cleveland Browns – 6-11, 4th in AFC North
There is no franchise like the Cleveland Browns. I won’t go into the entire fallout of what’s going on with the team’s new quarterback, but I will highlight one specific point that plays a role in how we will view the organization: of course, it was the Browns.
Forget how you feel about the move that Cleveland made and focus, instead, on the nature of the Browns and how they have tried to operate. That is, they have been extremely aggressive wherever possible — drafting Baker Mayfield first overall and then giving up on him a few seasons later, bringing in Odell Beckham, Jr. and completely ignoring his explosive tendencies in a locker room — and they have failed every time.
How and why should this year go any differently?
It feels like there is a little more at stake than usual, but even that isn’t true. In fact, there are just more eyeballs on the team and how they will perform both in the first half of the season with some combination of quarterbacks and in the second half when they believe they have found an answer for the next decade. That same “answer” that wanted to leave another poorly-run franchise behind, only to land in basically the same situation.
There is too much volatility in the expectations of the Browns to land on a specific number of wins that would give us an advantage. Overall, however, the outlook isn’t any brighter than it has been for a long time.
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