Last year, I continually referred to it as “different.” Not just because of the questionable status of the season, but simply because the numbers we look at constantly were about to be thrown into flux. It was the first year in which seven teams from each conference would make the playoffs.
One year later, we are starting to see some interesting aftereffects.
The first is that teams are no longer out of the playoff race as early as they had been in the past. If we pair that with the lengthened season — now 17 games — we can look at 2021 also in different light just like we did 2020. This is an ongoing trend, as there are a handful of teams that would have been buried by this point but probably have a chance to make a run.
The second transition from last year is that the spreads have been excellent. They haven’t actually been close to the final margin-of-victory — we don’t want them to be! — but they have been extremely telling where applicable. That’s one of the reasons why we are off to such a great start with the picks.
It feels like we have finally left behind the craziness of last season and we are starting to carve a new path into the meat of this year. As long as the numbers continue to deliver, so should we.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 19-19 (Last Week: 2-3)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 63-42-2 (Last Week: 8-5)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
If you happen to peek at the rest of the Week 8 schedule, you will quickly notice that the games are nothing short of underwhelming. It’s disappointing, but it’s the nature of the beast. The games can’t all be bad, though, and we are actually treated to an outstanding battled between the one-loss Green Bay Packers and the undefeated Arizona Cardinals.
Unfortunately, the game isn’t as great as it could be. Packers wide receiver Davante Adams — possibly the best non-quarterback on the field for either team — will almost certainly be inactive due to a positive COVID test. That’s disappointing for the element of drama.
It is not, however, ignored by the spread.