I’m extremely proud of what happened in Week 6. Indeed, the record was excellent, but I’m most pleased with the big picture outcome.
In the past, we’ve seen how quickly numbers and trends can catch up and cause losses. It’s why I try to always build as much of a safety net and foundation as possible — we will eventually lose, so the goal is to not give all of our winnings back. This is the time of year when it starts to happen.
And it could have easily happened in Week 6! Favorites dominated Sunday and, as a whole, I lean on underdogs. What happened?
The spreads were “fair.” It was exactly what I wrote in last week’s column. The spread inexplicably favored Minnesota despite Carolina potentially getting back Christian McCaffrey? Minnesota wins. The Rams were giving an insane amount of points on the road? The Rams win. Philadelphia was being buried because of poor play on national television? The spread was large enough to capture this imbalance, and the Eagles beat the spread.
As we know, it’s not always like this, and we rarely get such a great set of reads in consecutive weeks. Therefore, we will be careful in Week 7. As always, the game is in preserving what we have to this point.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 17-16 (Last Week: 3-2)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 55-37-2 (Last Week: 10-4)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns
Imagine how disrespectful it must be for a team to learn that its opponent is missing both starting running backs — for an offense that lives for its rushing attack — and its starting quarterback and said opponent is still favored. That’s how the Denver Broncos must be viewing Thursday Night Football. “Disrespectful.” An insult.
But, is it justified?