It’s a little unfair to judge any singular week against another. With the exception of the unorthodox few — the first and last weeks of the season as well as my favorite, Week 2 — there is generally a fair mix of games that have telling spreads and those that don’t. It’s rarely one-sided.
Really, it can’t be. If the spreads were so automatic, then we would only rely on them to find winners, as would those who make the odds. Sure, we try, and my job is to read them properly, but they aren’t guaranteed wins.
Still, some weeks present a larger amount of “right numbers” than others. Week 6 is one of those weeks.
As much as I would like to throw caution to the wind, we know we can’t. It feels imperative to repeat it, though, because human tendency is to find patterns that don’t really exist and act as if they do.
In Week 6, the ‘traps’ are evident, and the numbers align with a story in many areas. Put another way, this week is fair. That’s all we could want.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 14-14 (Last Week: 2-3)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 45-33-2 (Last Week: 8-7-1)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
I often write about a pick making me — or anyone — feel “uncomfortable” as a sign that it is probably the right play to make. Such was the case last week with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I hated the spread. I hated the image of relying on the “easy” play. I hated the setup.
I was uncomfortable. And the pick won.
Now, there’s a new chance to be uncomfortable. So let’s dive right in.