Because of the 17-game schedule, we are still not technically one-quarter of the way into the 2021 season, but it certainly feels like we are taking strides toward determining which teams will be in the playoff hunt months from now and which will be settling for a high draft pick. It is worth mentioning, though, that these early season “strides” have not exactly caused any separation. Only the AFC East shows a two-game lead, where three other divisions have at least two teams tied for first place.
It will be interesting to see how the longer season affects the standings and potential comebacks. A good example of this would be the old mentality behind an 0-2 start to the year where, statistically, it was extremely unlikely for a team to recover and make the playoffs. Between the added game and the three Wild Card spots up for grabs, that’s no longer the case.
Last week, we started to see some shifting within divisions that were in stark contrast to what happened in September. In the coming weeks, we should see another shift.
We will be ready to pounce as that happens.
Note from Mario: Normally, I like to compare some of the spreads from the major sportsbook with Yahoo!, seeing as many of you play in pools. This week, the Yahoo! spreads are wildly off from what is being shown elsewhere for many games. There is no way around this disconnect, unfortunately, but I wanted to mention it in case these differences were noted as you read.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 12-11 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 37-26-1 (Last Week: 9-7)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks start Week 5 with an outstanding NFC West battle in what is the best division in football. The Seahawks enter play after avoiding a disastrous 1-3 start, while the Rams are looking to rebound after losing handily to the now-4-0 Cardinals.
It’s a game with big storylines and an even bigger impact.
The main storylines from each team are not surprising: the Rams must prove that they belong in the upper echelon of the conference while the Seahawks must prove that they won’t fall out of contention. The added piece of the puzzle is that Seattle is playing at home in Primetime, where it is historically unbeatable.
There’s the edge for Thursday’s game.
Throughout my own path through how the matchup would unfold, I kept reminding myself of that longstanding trend. That is a critical point for recognizing how and why a spread is shown a certain way. I won’t be alone in thinking that Seattle’s home field gives it a tremendous edge on Thursday night, but that’s probably why the spread is so small.
In some cases, trends like this are completely viable. In this case, it is not. The Seahawks aren’t necessarily playing a “better” or “worse” team. They are playing a familiar team that is specifically built to win this particular game.
Through four weeks, Seattle is allowing the most yards in the league. Los Angeles ranks tenth in that category and has steadily delivered performances of approximately 380-410 yards in each game. The Seahawks will not be able to stop the Rams, and that’s what nullifies the trend.
Los Angeles does rebound to the tune of a six-point victory, covering the spread.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons – in London
What a mess.
Last year, the London Series was canceled because of travel restrictions. This year, two games will take place in the next two weeks, and neither is thrilling. The New York Jets, fresh off their first win of the year — an ‘upset,’ at that — will take on the Atlanta Falcons, fresh off their latest collapse.
Starting with Atlanta, what confidence can we possibly have in that team? The Falcons are doing absolutely nothing right and might actually be worse in 2021 than in 2020. The fact that they scored 30 points in last week’s game is nice, but it’s ultimately irrelevant. With the schedule laid out ahead of them — Giants, Football Team, Jets — there was a real path to the Falcons entering their bye week at 3-2! Now, they may be 1-4.
That’s a bit dramatic, but it’s a fair criticism. It’s a sign of how quickly things change, including team outlooks. Had the Falcons not completed their own comeback against the Giants, they could potentially be 0-5. Think about how that looks, as well.
But what about