Now we can see why we love Week 2.
It was a bundle of setups that put the numbers in positions where we could pounce. All of it was driven by overreaction.
The problem? Week 2 is now over, and we have to proceed with the rest of the season.
Fear not. There’s always a way.
One of the themes that I found most prevalent when writing Week 3’s column was the notion that some outcomes weren’t as clear-cut as they seemed. This is not the first time we’ve had such a situation, but it happened to be a league-wide circumstance in Week 2.
There’s our first edge.
The other is in the early direction for some teams. With 17 games, we can’t rely perfectly on prior years’ trends, but we can put together some semblance of an expectation. We’re definitely not in ‘must-win’ territory for anyone, but we are in the world of ‘something needs to change.’
It’s our job to identify what that change is and if it will come to fruition.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 6-6 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 20-11-1 (Last Week: 12-4)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans
Despite the many years that I have written these picks, I still have some biases. I never let them get in the way of a pick, but I mention them because they are important to acknowledge. By recognizing where I could fall into a hole, I am more likely to avoid it.
I am finding myself fighting the bias for the Carolina Panthers.
Before this season, I was heavily buying into the Panthers. They had a quietly solid defense in 2020 and traded for a quarterback who was still young enough to develop on the fly with actual weapons around him. We’re now two games into the season and Carolina is 2-0 with an impressive win against the Saints on their resume.
So, what’s the problem?