We’re here! Although it might be one week later than what we have seen in every season of the past few decades, we are at the end.
I know I write about this all the time, but it feels like we just started. The season may be longer in actual timeframe, but it felt like a blur. In an honest moment, that’s a good thing for me as I write. I don’t like to stop and think about the state of the season, as I enjoy the flow of games from one week to the next.
I think that has contributed most to the success of this year. We obviously can’t control what happens, but we can lean on the odds and what we see from a week-to-week standpoint. This year, there has been excellent weekly carryover, and the numbers have reflected that as well.
The good news is that this appears to be the case into the season’s finale. We know that there will be some teams who will try their hardest while others will rest players but, outside of those caveats specific to this particular week, we can proceed with business as usual.
For the most part, anyway.
That leads to the bad news.
There will be teams that won’t play their starters, and there will be constantly-changing news articles leading up to kickoff. As I write every year in the final regular-season article, I never change a pick due to the news, but I do make an exception in these unorthodox cases. If a team outwardly indicates that it won’t be trying to win, I have to reassess what I wrote. If that happens, I will highlight the pick and make sure to mention it right below the introduction. Once again, I almost never do this, but I like to keep the metaphorical door open in Week 18 in case it becomes a necessity.
As always, writing this column on a weekly basis brings me great joy, and it was even more rewarding in 2021 to have paired these words with such a great record. Thank you for coming along for the ride with me.
– Mario
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 49-45 (Last Week: 2-3)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 144-110-2 (Last Week: 8-8)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
The final week of the regular season begins with a Saturday afternoon matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.
I’m not overly excited.
Indeed, I enjoy watching quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs play, but I also enjoy value. And there is no value to be had in this game.
Think about the matchup from the outside, looking in. If Drew Lock is to start again for the Broncos, there won’t be a spread big enough to scare people away from Kansas City. But even if Teddy Bridgewater were to take the field, will the football-watching world price this change accordingly? Almost certainly not.
That presents a problem. If there is any value to be had at all, it would be with