I’m actually excited.
Last week, I specifically mentioned how overextended both the trends and our success rate had become. It was unsustainable and, while I never like to lose, having a week where everything resets was inevitable. As a result, we suffered our first losing week of the year.
First.
It was Week 14.
Obviously, I’m proud of that. But it runs much deeper than pride.
We could have been crushed. We could have been sideswiped and knocked back down quite a few pegs from our high perch. Instead, we settled for losing just two more picks than we won, but also turned in a winning record in confidence picks — and were a half-point and ridiculous collapse away from a 4-1 record in those games.
On top of the ‘best-case scenario in a loss’ outcome, we also shared this ‘down week’ with the industry itself. This was considered the worst week of the year for those who make the spreads.
That is fantastic news.
We make our moves by reading the spreads and attacking the hidden expected outcome. Last week, there were simply fewer great reads and value plays to be had.
This week? It’s the complete opposite. Great plays are everywhere.
What I find more amazing is that the spreads are aggressive. One week after widespread losses, the numbers aren’t playing it safe. They are showing their hands without regard to being overexposed. Essentially, those who make the odds are confident in a rebound, and they aren’t hiding said confidence.
Now you can see why I am so excited to dive back into the spreads.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 42-34 (Last Week: 3-2)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 121-85-2 (Last Week: 6-8)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Wow. What did we do to deserve this?
The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will square off on Thursday Night Football with the two teams separated by just one game in the divisional standings. On the surface, this is an outstanding matchup. Deeper, we can see that it is also outstanding timing.
Both the Chiefs and Chargers have powered their way to impressive records, but they didn’t get to this point without some adversity along the way. In the perfect convergence of goof fortune for us as football fans, Los Angeles and Kansas City are arguably playing their best football as they head into the meeting. No one is still looking for answers.
Both are, however, looking for something.
The