We keep marching on throughout the season, fully aware of the extended trend in our favor. As I always write, I don’t take this lightly. I know how quickly things can change, and there are still five more weeks — including this one — left in the regular season.
With that being said, I also can’t help but smile when combing through and results. For years, I have written about how important it is to not deviate from a system, and we are seeing that in full force with this year’s production.
That’s also because we have had some help from the teams, games, and those who make the odds.
Generally speaking, the trends I follow so closely have been working. Period. Sometimes they don’t, and that’s when we lose. I mention this now because Week 14 is filled with matchups that don’t fit our preferred setups. There are some good ones, of course, but the general theme is one of caution.
Be careful. We’ve made it this far, and we may need to start scaling back and protecting our gains. This does not mean that we should bail on the system or go against the picks. It just means that, if you have played the games individually, you should probably take fewer risks.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 39-32 (Last Week: 3-2)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 115-77-2 (Last Week: 8-6)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings
It really is amazing how some games play out and then directly lead into the next. Of all the outcomes that could have happened in Week 13, there were two that would have been both surprising and important had they happened individually.
The Minnesota Vikings became the first team to lose to the Lions, and the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Ravens to stay alive in an AFC North that feels destined to go down-to-the-wire.
And we have the good fortune of pairing the two against each other on Thursday Night Football.
It shouldn’t be difficult to see where I’m going with this. There will absolutely be an overreaction in both directions, but neither is valid. I certainly misread the Vikings last week, but is anyone surprised that a team that plays to the level of its competition lost to a division rival? I can’t imagine, given the amount of ‘upsets’ we have seen this year, that the Vikings’ loss ranks anywhere near the top of ‘impossible’ moments.
The Steelers beating the Ravens? That one we did expect.
The other reason why the overreaction is so obvious but also invalid is that the numbers favor the Vikings where it matters most. Minnesota is now 5-7 — two games under .500 — but with a positive point differential. Conveniently, Pittsburgh is in the opposite direction. The Steelers are 6-5-1 with a negative point differential. And that tie? It was against the Lions.
I will continue buying into the Steelers when the value is in their favor simply because they will keep fighting. This week, the Vikings are the team more likely to take control as they have yet to deviate from their standard. They likely won’t fall further below .500, and a home game on national television after an embarrassment.
Minnesota and its seventh-ranked offense in yards-per-game rebound with a ten-point victory, covering the spread.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (-3, -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
As you certainly know by now, I hate reacting to anything in the world of sports. This is, in an honest moment, a major reason why I write these articles. I want to know what I expect so that, if it happens, I am not left forming an opinion based on the outcome.
The Baltimore Ravens’ loss to the Steelers has implications in many areas. It affects the AFC North race — Pittsburgh is still alive while Baltimore’s lead has dwindled — and it absolutely will play a role in the infamous world of perception.
The Ravens lost to Pittsburgh, and it was considered a surprise.
We know better.
We knew that the Steelers had a realistic chance at an ‘upset,’ and we knew that this would provide an eye-opening moment for all parties.
The problem is that
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