It’s not always possible to find a singular trend that spans the schedule of games for a given week, but it looks like we may have one here: the spreads are huge.
Most of them make sense. We have an abnormal number of games that, at first glance, are lopsided. But we also know that every game won’t follow the script of the obvious, and there will be ‘upsets’ ahead.
After all, this season has given us more ‘upsets’ than we could have imagined.
That does, however, mean we need to tread lightly.
Between the large spreads and prior success rate, we need to protect against our own regression. We can’t rely on prior trends because, unlike previous weeks, this one does have a pattern to it.
As long as we recognize it — and we obviously do — we can carefully navigate around it and continue along the road of this outstanding season.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 36-30 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 107-71-2 (Last Week: 8-7)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
It’s always odd to me when the first game that will be played on a given week is one of the last ones about which I write. This is the nature of the system. Some games have immediate reads and others need time to develop.
And, in rare occasions, some need news to break.
The Thursday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints both had news and needs news.
It “had news” in the reporting that Dallas will be without head coach Mike McCarthy due to a positive COVID-19 test. We’ll get back to the implications of this in a moment, but I find the commentary that followed truly eye-opening.
Read this report from ESPN and take particular note of how McCarthy explains Dan Quinn will serve as the interim head coach for Thursday’s game. McCarthy could have easily opened and closed the book with one quote, “Quinn has experience in this league and took a team to the Super Bowl as a head coach.” Instead, he actually goes out of his way to name menial tasks that a head coach does while then noting how offensive coordinator Kellen Moore can focus on play-calling.
For as many times as I write that we need to read the spreads, we also need to read between-the-lines of the narratives. McCarthy is hardly considered one of the best coaches in the league, while Moore ‘looks the part’ of his heir apparent. Might Moore eventually take over for McCarthy? We have no idea. Might McCarthy win a Super Bowl and keep his job forever? We also have no idea. But these types of comments can be dissected because they aren’t as harmless as they appear.
I went off on this tangent because