This is it! It’s here!
I know I write this every year, but I am genuinely excited for this upcoming season. I think it’s because we didn’t know what we would get in 2020 and, even though there is a level of uncertainty that still exists in 2021, we can be confident that a season will take place.
And we will be here, picking games. For all seventeen weeks of the regular season.
In looking back to last year’s Opening Week column — I generally have to do this for some statistics and trends that I update annually — I came across an interesting note that I had forgotten. There was no preseason in 2020. We had absolutely nothing to use as the source of our expectations other than the prior season and the relevant offseason moves. With the emphasis I put on expectations, this was unorthodox.
Now, we have a different twist to handle. There was a preseason, but only three games. That, in itself, is generally irrelevant. What does matter is how long it has taken to get from the end of the preseason to the start of the regular season. Has it been years? It certainly feels like it. And what happens in that lengthened span of time?
We sit and wait and think and predict.
Over the years, we have honed our methodology for picks to the point that many of you know where I am going with a game’s prediction almost immediately. It follows a pattern that you and I have seen before, and we are simply updating the names. And who else has that same level of conviction where this added buffer time will do little to sway any thinking?
Those who make the odds.
The spreads for Week 1 are extremely reasonable given everything that goes into them. They could easily change with the news or with some action from the preseason, but most have remained stable. What this tells us is that, while others will react and, again, take this time to overthink the situation, we should not.
So we won’t.
We will sit and wait and think and predict.
And enjoy the start of another season.
Thank you, as always, for being here for the ride.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHoust Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: —– (Last Week: —)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: —– (Last Week: —–)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The tradition of the prior year’s Super Bowl champion opening the season on Thursday Night Football allows us to immediately use perception against those who haven’t updated their expectations for the coming year. By virtue of the home team just winning the Super Bowl, the last image we have of said team could not possibly be better.
That image carries through to the start of a new season.
On the other side of the matchup, we don’t have a playoff team from last year facing the reigning champions. We have what many thought would be better, but not a team that carries any actual memory into this year. It’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their Lombardi Trophy-winning squad against the Dallas Cowboys and their could-have-been season.
Wherever possible, I start with the perception of two teams because it’s the easiest and more reasonable area to dissect. In cases like this, we know how at least one team is viewed. That we know about both is an added bonus.
The irony is that