In the beginning of every football season, I write about how much I enjoy the process of writing my picks. Sometimes, the research wears on me, and the full weeks can be a mountain to climb in terms of the amount of games I need to cover while still giving my readers an opportunity to digest them all. Still, as soon as I sit down and start writing about the games, I feel a sense of joy.
It’s the same with this article.
I started writing it on a yearly basis because I had found the joy in seeing people root for — or against — ridiculous props. It added a new level to the game I love and, if I could put my words to it, why wouldn’t I? Shortly after, it became one of my favorite pieces to write.
This year, I started it relatively early and then took a break. When I went to return and finalize everything, I was struck with the worst bout of food poisoning I could imagine. It knocked me out to the point that, when I tried to write the introduction, I actually felt myself putting together gibberish.
I worried that, for the first time since starting the article, it would be a chore and not a privilege.
Thankfully, I was wrong.
As soon as I felt better and could start assessing the likelihood of a particular song or color of outfit or even actual on-field expectations, I felt like myself again. I felt at home.
I write because it makes me happy. I watch football because it keeps me entertained.
And I pay attention to the props every year because, sometimes, in the middle of the most important game of someone’s life, I can laugh.
With that being said, we lead with our usual disclaimer. The prop bets below are compiled from different websites, and the opinions given is purely satirical. Do not use this as advice, in any way. Our fellow NFL betting expert, Dan, has his article in which he does include valid player props, and it’s worth a read here.
This year, I happened to use multiple sources for the Prop Bets. Here they are: My Bookie, Oddshark via SportingNews, FanDuel SportsBook, and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Coin Toss – Heads or Tails
I almost forgot this one! So much so that I had to go back and check last year’s article to see if I missed anything — and sure enough, here it was! The real answer is that I never waver in my stance, so there’s no reason to overanalyze it. Heads. Now, next year, and forever.
Prediction: Heads
How long will the National Anthem run? Over/Under 95 Seconds
In all my years of being steadfastly devoted to Super Bowl props, I have never heard such confidence in people saying that the National Anthem will go ‘under.’ Even if it happens, everyone bets the ‘over.’ I’m a contrarian by nature and, it will finally be nice to stand in front of the screen and, instead of begging for the singer to “Wrap it up!” I can proudly shout, “Let it ring!” or something equally clever and supporting. I’m not sure what. This is a first for me.
Prediction: Over
What will be the predominant color for Mickey Guyton’s outfit? White (+200), Yellow or Gold (+300), Blue or Black (+350), or Red (+400)
Unlike the length of the National Anthem, there appears to be no consensus for this one, so I’ll make my pick based on something I learned recently. Apparently — and feel free to fact-check me on this but not bother to tell me the truth — someone who wears red to a wedding is secretly in love with the groom. I have no idea how valid that is, but I told my kids about it, and they now have most Lego or Calico Critters weddings broken up by a secret lover in red. I’ve pretending that storyline carries through to the Super Bowl’s National Anthem.
Prediction: Red
How many aircraft will there be in the National Anthem flyover? Over 4.5 (-240) or Under 4.5 (+170)
Maybe I’ve missed it in the past, but this feels like the first time that I have ever seen this prop offered. Therefore, I’m intrigued. I’m also intrigued by the odds. Surely, someone knows something, right? Otherwise, why would this be so heavily tilted in the direction the ‘over?’ I won’t call this a ‘trap,’ but I will take the chance with the ‘under’ just to capture the great payout. After all, I fully expect to have won the first two props, so I can afford to miss one. If I’m wrong.
Prediction: Under
Who will be the first to sing, speak, or rap at the Halftime Show? Dr. Dre (+130), Snoop Dogg (+140), Eminem (+300), Mary J. Blige (+350), Kendrick Lamar (+400)
I’m sure I’m not the only person who feels this way, but I almost never pay attention to the Halftime Show. In fact, if it weren’t for these props and someone in my family wanting to see the performance, I would most likely leave the room — I actually have in the past. I digress, but only for the reason of noting that, with this group of performers, I know even less than usual. What I do know is that Snoop Dogg is a true entertainer at heart, and I’ll give him the edge in speaking first.
Prediction: Snoop Dogg
Which song will be performed first at the Halftime Show?
Because of the number of performers, there are too many songs to even list, let alone break down appropriately. I will note that the runaway favorite is “California Love” by Dr. Dre, but I won’t take the bait. Instead, I’m doubling down on my “Snoop Dogg is first to speak” and picking the combination of him and Dr. Dre.
Prediction: Deep Cover by Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg (+950)
How many times will Eminem curse during Halftime? Over 1.5 (-120) or Under 1.5 (-120)
Forget the prop itself, I actually find it interesting that the number is set at 1.5 and not 0.5. Do we think Eminem will slip one time and then catch himself afterwards and correct course? I feel like this is an ‘open the floodgates’ type of play where, if he’s in, he’s in. He’s probably in.
Prediction: Over 1.5
Will Tupac Shakur join via hologram during Halftime? Yes (+250) or No (-650)
I had to include this one just because of how ridiculous it is. I don’t care about the long odds, I’m taking it simply because there are people who think that it might happen.
Prediction: No
What color will the liquid be that gets dumped on the winning coach? Orange (+250), None (+350), Blue (+400), Clear/Water (+450), Red (+600), or Purple (+1000)
Copy-and-paste time! Not really, but I might as well have taken exactly what I wrote for each of the last few years and pasted it here. It’s always going to be red for me. I want to write it into existence. I will note that, after being the favorite last year, it has plummeted to +600.
Prediction: Red
And now time for some actual picks. These are mainly being listed because I like the odds, even if the picks, themselves, are either contradictory or unlikely to hit. As always, do your research, be careful, and play responsibly.
Van Jefferson, Jr. OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-120) – There’s simply no way that the Bengals can ignore Cooper Kupp, and they are going to devote as much attention to him as possible. Fine. The next man up? Odell Beckham, Jr. Not necessarily. Indeed, Beckham has become an important part of the Rams’ offense, and he has thrived as of late, but let’s not forget that Van Jefferson, Jr. is the team’s best deep threat option. He needs one long reception to beat this mark, and I’m buying in that it happens.
Tee Higgins UNDER 69.5 receiving yards (-120) – The Rams and Bengals have a similar setup in terms of their wide receiver depth charts, where the top player is clearly the ‘go-to’ target. That leaves both defenses game-planning around how to stop the undeniable threat as well as the next-in-line. This is where Tee Higgins has blossomed. The problem is that his number has inflated and, with two weeks to prepare, the Rams’ defense won’t make the same mistake that other teams have made in ignoring him as a viable threat.
Joe Mixon OVER 89.5 rushing plus receiving yards (-110) – With all the attention that needs to be paid to Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon will be asked to step up and help carry the offense. That may be a lot to ask, but there’s a small caveat between Sunday’s game and anything we have seen recently. That is, it’s the Super Bowl. The Bengals have had no hesitation in running through Mixon relentlessly, and this isn’t a game where they will shy away from doing it again. In fact, I would normally look for a backup running to steal receptions if a team is trailing, but I doubt Mixon leaves the field under any circumstance. I can’t gauge if his yards will come from the rushing attack or through-the-air, so I will attack the combined prop.
There will NOT be a two-point conversion attempt in the game (+100) – This one is obviously tough because there are two angles to it. The most obvious one is necessity. If a team needs to attempt a two-point conversion, it will. No deep analysis there. But, I’m not basing this pick on necessity simply because the other route has a more stable path to success. The Rams simply never pass up points. They had the fifth-fewest fourth-down attempts in the regular season and, not surprisingly, the fourth-fewest two-point-conversion attempts. I’ll lean on the history there.
Los Angeles Rams UNDER 3.5 sacks (-120) – I love this pick mainly because I love the storyline. The single narrative that has been cited everyone — including in my own column — is the mismatch between the Rams’ defensive front and the Bengals’ offensive line. Los Angeles will get pressure. Period. The only unknown is what the result will be. Therein lies the value. The Bengals have absolutely been planning for a relentless attack, and they will design plays that gets the ball out of quarterback Joe Burrow’s hands as quickly as possible. Therefore, the Rams will get into the backfield, but they probably won’t secure a high number of sacks.