I usually only write about my picks. Indeed, in some select situations — or if another website requests my services — I will branch away, but it’s almost always in the confines of predictive analysis.
I’m here to give my thoughts on what I expect to happen.
In itself, that sentence is deceiving. “What I expect to happen” is really no different than what others expect to happen. Still, it is framed within the context of the information available to us. That could be in the form of the spread — of course — matchup, or news.
I opened this article as I did because there has been no shortage of news around the National Football League. The irony? Almost none of it has to do with the game ahead of us.
Imagine that. The league now gives two weeks between its Conference Championships and the Super Bowl for a number of reasons, but one of the main purposes is to give the sport a chance to breathe and regain hype. One week is enough to get people excited, but two weeks? That’s twice as much time!
Instead, we aren’t talking about the two teams that have survived to reach this point. The storylines that include a second-year quarterback returning from a devastating knee injury to immediately take a team to the Super Bowl or the one that saw a blockbuster trade bring in a quarterback who had played his entire career in a sputtering organization. I’m sure that will change in the coming days — and the ramping up of excitement and attention will probably be exponential — but we had approximately one week without such surge. It would make sense to think nothing has changed about the Super Bowl in that time.
Amazingly, that isn’t the case. So now we have to figure out why.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 55-50 (Last Week: —)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 158-125-2 (Last Week: 1-1)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals
One of the reasons why the NFL playoffs are so enjoyable and dramatic is simply because each game has a ‘win-or-go-home’ setup. It’s one-game elimination, and the season either extends to ends on the spot.
The Los Angeles Rams started the year as one of the best teams in the league. As noted in the introduction of this article, it was largely because they brought in Matthew Stafford to be added to a roster already swelling with talent. To see Los Angeles now in the Super Bowl — ironically and conveniently, to also see the Super Bowl in Los Angeles — is not exactly a surprise. Even when the Rams hit their low point, it never seemed overly likely that they would miss the playoffs.
The Cincinnati Bengals were not displaying as much confidence. In fact, they were the team that constantly appeared to ‘not be ready’ for specific matchups. It’s incredible what has transpired over the course of the season. And it’s all by their own doing. The Bengals transformed on-the-fly and, in the moment, became ready.
Putting the paths of these two teams together,