“Is this not one of the best playoff fields ever?” I actually whispered those words to myself when I was 500 or so words into this article. I had laid out a handful of teams, compared the odds, actually opened up a playoff bracket simulator — here, if anyone wants to try for themselves — and had to stop and admire the field. It is outstanding.
The purpose of this article is two-fold. The first is to predict the winner. Period. It’s mathematically unlikely to determine the singular winner out of 14 options, but we know that all options are not created equally.
That presents a major issue and leads to the second element of this column: determining where the value lies. Some teams carry such great odds that we have to look into them. Others are surprisingly competitive. To that point, and to what I wrote at the start of this introduction, we really can’t be shocked by too many outcomes. That’s great for our entertainment value. It’s not ideal when it comes to trying to pick the winners and benefit from their odds.
NFL Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI – Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook via TheLines.com:
1st Seed – Green Bay Packers (3.8 to 1)
2nd Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (4.5 to 1)
3rd Seed – Buffalo Bills (7.5 to 1)
2nd Seed – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8 to 1)
1st Seed – Tennessee Titans (8.5 to 1)
4th Seed – Los Angeles Rams (10 to 1)
3rd Seed – Dallas Cowboys (12 to 1)
4th Seed – Cincinnati Bengals (16 to 1)
6th Seed – San Francisco 49ers (20 to 1)
6th Seed – New England Patriots (22 to 1)
5th Seed – Arizona Cardinals (25 to 1)
5th Seed – Las Vegas Raiders (60 to 1)
7th Seed – Philadelphia Eagles (60 to 1)
7th Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers (90 to 1)
I always start with the same approach. I knock out any team that, even with excellent odds, does not present a likely scenario to winning the Super Bowl. These are the ‘first cuts’ and, even if I will eventually trim a team from my list later in the column, I want to start by eliminating those who aren’t worth a deeper evaluation. That starts with the Philadelphia Eagles and, to my own surprise, it ends there. That’s the list. I will absolutely cut teams from this point, but the odds are so surprising on some that I have to give them their fair assessment. The Eagles simply haven’t played enough top competition to ask them to survive the gauntlet of the playoffs with a rookie head coach.
I’ll continue down the path of the teams that would have been immediate cuts, but have at least one note worth making that allowed them to make it to the second paragraph of this column — prestigious award, I know. The Pittsburgh Steelers have almost no chance to make any noise in the playoffs, and it’s almost a foregone conclusion that they will be eliminated on Sunday night. Still, they have the longest odds of any team, but easily one of the best head coaches in the sport. Pittsburgh continues to defy all odds and win games and, if the team can get past the Chiefs on Sunday, why couldn’t it build on the momentum, lean on the defense, and steal another few wins? I won’t go as far as crowning it the champion, but Pittsburgh — thanks to fantastic odds — is worth a look as the Conference winner. The same is true for the Las Vegas Raiders, but for a different reason. The Raiders were actually my AFC pick in the beginning of the season and, while they are a vastly different team now — unfortunately for them, not a better team — I won’t let my initial read of them go without giving it its due diligence. Like Pittsburgh, Las Vegas may lose in the first round but, if it can carry last week’s emotional victory into Saturday afternoon, it can compete in the short term. The offense is that good. Once again, I won’t look for a Super Bowl win here, but would target the odds for an AFC win.
Now it gets interesting.