NFL Picks: 2021 NFC Full Season Predictions

The buildup for any NFL season is always a highlight of my year. The buildup for this particular NFL season might be the highlight of the last decade.

In 2020, we still had football, but we had so much more to fill our minds — we weren’t even sure if the season would start, let alone finish. Still, we managed another great season of against-the-spread picks, and the season-long win total future picks were among the best on record at a whopping 11-5.

This year, we should have no such concern. If anything, we can use last year’s uncertainty — and our ability to maneuver around it — to seamlessly move into 2021.

Below are the full season predictions for the 2021 National Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caeser’s Sportsbook — formerly William Hill Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -140 was used. In the past, -125 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals – 7-10, 4th in NFC West – UNDER 8.5 Wins (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Arizona Cardinals are two completely different teams for football fans. In one area, they are an offensive-laden group of players that serve as the backbone of many fantasy football teams. Elsewhere, they are a team that moves the ball well but has trouble translating that skill into a high number of wins.

There is some irony here. I am always insisting on the importance of a team’s offense when it comes to winning games, yet I am knocking the Cardinals’ win total despite praising the offense. The reality is that not all winning squads are built the same, where Arizona’s offense is as I have already described. It’s a fantasy team.

We have actually seen a similar setup for years in Atlanta. The Falcons featured one of the more excited groups of players that were highly sought for someone’s fantasy football team. Every so often, Atlanta would pop for a great season, but much of the tenure with its best skill position players was viewed as a ‘disappointment.’ The Cardinals are trending in that same direction.

Head coach Kliff Kingsbury helps further this outlook for the team. Once again, he is creative in racking up yards for his offense but has had plenty of questionable decisions in his two-year stint that suggests Arizona just hit its cap of wins for the foreseeable future. And that’s before we factor in just how difficult the division will be in 2021.

San Francisco 49ers – 9-8, 3rd in NFC West

It’s not common for me to have my own roller coaster prediction for a team. Normally, I will write about how the public perception has undergone such waves but, behind the wavering expectations of the football-watching world, I have my own. They don’t normally change.

The San Francisco 49ers are the exception.

I was ready to buy into San Francisco. I have the utmost respect for head coach Kyle Shanahan, and I trust his ability to get the best from a quarterback more than most. Still, the 49ers put themselves in the eye-opening position of drafting a replacement for the quarterback they acquired via trade a few years ago. The same quarterback to whom San Francisco handed the keys to the franchise.

That, in itself, is not overly noteworthy. That the 49ers drafted Trey Lance to be the replacement and then kept incumbent Jimmy Garroppolo is.

My confidence in San Francisco hinged on the team’s ability to maneuver through the landscape of having two quarterbacks — with one as trade bait — through the offseason so that it could be settled by Opening Day. That hasn’t happened, and that’s where the drop from the roller coaster began.

The 49ers had played their hand perfectly in the sense that they were creating an outside quarterback competition only to be prepared to trade Garoppolo to a team in need. But, when a team in need emerged — Indianapolis after the injury to Carson Wentz — no such trade happened. Instead, the 49ers insist that Garoppolo will remain the team’s starting quarterback, but Lance will play as well.

San Francisco was the perfect ‘bounceback’ team early in the offseason. Indeed, the NFC West is a powerhouse, but the 49ers are deep and solidly built, where stability at the quarterback season would have likely pushed them back into the playoffs. Now, “stability at the quarterback position” is exactly what they will lack.

The 49ers will have a better season by virtue of players returning from injury, adding Lance, and ultimately shifting the offense in his direction. Unfortunately for San Francisco, it won’t be enough until it has fully committed to a quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks – 10-7, 2nd in NFC West, Wild Card Berth

Every year, I write about the same trend. Every year, it remains intact. The ‘regression-minded’ analyst in me screams about how impossible this is. The ‘contrarian’ in me argues that the best play is against what has happened year after year. And the football fan in me worries that, at a moment’s notice, we might see the sudden decline begin.

I am not one to expect past performance to directly confirm future results, but the Seattle Seahawks are an exception. Really, quarterback Russell Wilson is an exception.

Wilson has completed nine seasons as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback. He has led his team to a winning record in every single campaign. As I always repeat, this isn’t a non-losing record. It’s a winning record. More wins than losses. Nine consecutive seasons. It’s mind-boggling.

Over the past few years, there have been reasons to think the streak will come to an end. Still, he delivers. That’s where the introduction to this section comes into play. Every arrow is pointing against Wilson and the Seahawks. What do we do with this information?

Nothing. As much as I’d like to ride the wave on the team’s win total for another year, it remains high and is asking a lot of Seattle. The NFC West is possibly the best, most complete division in the league, and the Seahawks could certainly win ten games based on the aforementioned past history, but still not deliver an over-under win. I can’t justify taking that risk.

I also can’t justify pushing Seattle out of a playoff spot. Unless Wilson physically can’t play, he’ll be leading his team to another winning season. And another postseason berth.

Los Angeles Rams