Yikes. That was… bad.
Every year, it’s inevitable that we will have a down week of picks. In fact, it’s inevitable that we will have multiple down weeks of picks — where I often write that the key is to limit both the intensity and frequency of these moments.
To that point, I can’t complain too much. We had such an incredibly great season that losses were eventually going to find us. Still, it didn’t feel great and, whenever this happens, I feel the need to apologize. Therefore, I’m sorry.
As always, I like to find the story behind the week, even in one that didn’t turn out to our advantage. That wasn’t overly difficult considering what we just watched.
The Buccaneers won convincingly, but the Eagles made a push against the spread. The Bengals and 49ers survived against the Raiders and Cowboys, respectively, but both opponents had the ball and were within one score when the final seconds ticked away — Dallas, literally, held onto the ball as time expired.
The point is that, despite the bad record, most of the games played out to their numbers. We just landed on the wrong side of them.
The good news? The numbers for the Divisional Round are quite clear.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook, or SugarHouse Sportsbook. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2021 Season: 54-49 (Last Week: 0-2)
(2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
(7-Year Total: 409-339-21)
All Picks Against Spread – 2021 Season: 155-122-2 (Last Week: 1-6)
(2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
(7-Year Total: 963-850-56)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
I led with a mention of the numbers because the first game of the weekend is one-of-two in which the spread is going to tell us the story. But before we read it, let’s set the stage.
The Cincinnati Bengals finally got a playoff win and, in the process, appear to have changed the entire culture of their franchise. Think about that and then consider how important a quarterback is for a team.
I’m still in disbelief as to how quickly Joe Burrow has returned from last year’s knee injury and developed into one of the best passers in the game, but my opinion of him is both irrelevant and unpopular. Where I am surprised, others are rewarded. Most people expected Burrow to be this good. They are now vindicated in their conviction, and it showed in how