The buildup for any NFL season is always a highlight of my year. The buildup for this particular NFL season might be the highlight of the last decade.
In 2020, we still had football, but we had so much more to fill our minds — we weren’t even sure if the season would start, let alone finish. Still, we managed another great season of against-the-spread picks, and the season-long win total future picks were among the best on record at a whopping 11-5.
This year, we should have no such concern. If anything, we can use last year’s uncertainty — and our ability to maneuver around it — to seamlessly move into 2021.
Below are the full season predictions for the 2021 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caeser’s Sportsbook — formerly William Hill Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -140 was used. In the past, -125 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.
AFC East
New York Jets – 6-11, 4th in AFC East
It seems as if the New York Jets are in an endless cycle that fluctuates between extreme optimism and a complete rebuild. They will enter 2021 with the former.
Over the past few years, I had bought into the Jets on the foundation that they had landed a franchise quarterback who would grow with the team and develop into a perennial winner. That didn’t happen. Therefore, New York entered the ‘rebuild’ stage. In doing so, it would be best suited to build around the potential franchise quarterback and start filling in holes that would allow for such development. Again, it didn’t happen.
The Jets landed the second overall pick in last year’s Draft and had a capable quarterback on their roster. The second pick in this particular Draft was also incredibly valuable and highly coveted. The possibilities were endless for New York. The franchise could have traded the pick and addressed multiple needs or solidified its offensive line via someone like Penei Sewell or could have added one of the many wide receivers who showed tremendous promise. By the end, they walked away with a capable quarterback on their roster.
Maybe Zach Wilson is far superior to Sam Darnold. Maybe the pieces the Jets eventually drafted are enough to support Wilson. Maybe rookie head coach Robert Sallah — a defensive guru on a team that desperately needs to develop offense — will find success where so many previous Jets coaches failed. Maybe.
More realistically, New York is built solely on optimism right now, and it has yet to exit the ‘rebuilding stage.’
Miami Dolphins – 8-9, 3rd in AFC East – Under 9.5 Wins (-140 at Caeser’s Sportsbook)
There is never a shortage of storylines in the National Football League, and 2020 was no exception. One such storyline that captivated the league was rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. More specifically, how the Miami Dolphins handled rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Putting aside any expectations for Tagovailoa both in 2020 and his future, the Dolphins took such an extreme and unnecessary risk with his development that I can’t possibly accept it as the best course of action. Miami essentially treated him like a platoon player where, if he appeared to be in a positive situation, Tagovailoa would stay on the field. As soon as he started to show signs of trouble, Miami turned to veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
There are competing schools of thought regarding rookie quarterbacks and when they should pay as opposed to sit and learn behind a veteran. Whatever those arguments may be, they generally lead to one decision or the other. Miami tried to play it safe with their decision-making process and, instead, landed in the middle.
The balancing act must have repercussions. Whether it’s physical — not enough time under center in high-stress game environments — or mental — the team didn’t trust Tagovailoa to work through his own struggles — some takeaway will spill into 2021. The simplest question to ask is, “Now that the Dolphins don’t have Fitzpatrick waiting in the wings, do they expect Tagovailoa to dominate?”
It’s unfair. Miami is having their metaphorical cake and eating it, too. All the while, their quarterback is expected to have grown heading into the second year of his career. His numbers at the end of last season certainly don’t show that, as he threw two touchdowns but four interceptions over his last three games.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe the Dolphins took an unconventional route and played this perfectly. But there’s nothing to suggest that this approach to player development will work in arguably the most important position in sports and in a division that has at least two other potential playoff teams.
Buffalo Bills – 10-7, 2nd in AFC East, Wild Card Berth
The Buffalo Bills remain one of the more intriguing teams in the league simply because of how positively the football-watching world views them. Granted, I have been outspoken against quarterback Josh Allen — and I remain unconvinced of his long-term viability as a passer — but the general belief is that the Bills’ 13-3 campaign in 2020 is just the springboard for something better.
What would have been “better” was a competitive showing against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Or the presence of any offense in the Divisional Round.
Instead, the Bills are entering 2021 as many teams have in prior seasons: with the expectation that the success of one season will easily carry into the next.
Again, I can’t knock Buffalo for what it did in the regular season, and I am clearly not punishing them as I’m expecting a double-digit win season and a playoff berth. I am, however, looking for regression to play a role for a team that won six consecutive games to close out the year and scored at least 34 points in four of its last five regular-season games. There’s also the reemergence of the Patriots as a threat in the division, where Buffalo was able to dispose of New England twice last year.
New England Patriots – Please register or login to read the rest of the article.