We need to pause and take a moment before officially turning the page from the regular season to the postseason. Never before did we even have to question the possibility that we would get playoff games, let alone get them on time and with the overall integrity of the league and the standings still intact.
Other sports were not so lucky. In fact, we frequently hear rumblings about how the 2020 season was not necessarily indicative of the other three major sports’ best competition. This is a fallacy. If anything, these most recent seasons involved some of the most difficult obstacles to overcome along the way to a championship. Regardless, these same claims cannot be made about the National Football League. Not as a whole, anyway.
The other obvious difference between the start of this year’s playoffs and any other in the past is the inclusion of two more games on Wild Card Weekend. As a fan, I’m thrilled — I’ll never turn down more football! — and, as a writer and analyst, I found it a nice change-of-pace to have a few more options to consider. Six games involving twelve teams presented enough moments of value where we could balance underdogs against favorites and, as always, create a set of picks that we expect to land on the winning side.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 50-42-3 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 127-122-7 (Last Week: 9-6-1)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Whenever I have a conversation about the spread with someone who is interesting in learning more, I lean on one critical piece of advice: the purpose of the spread is to find the imbalance between perception and reality. We have the perfect example of how this is applied when we look at the game between the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills.
Think about each team and its respective 2020 season. What were the records? How did they perform in critical spots? Who are their star players?
Now throw it all away.
Replace those questions with