I am shocked that I’m actually typing these words, but the spreads were wrong.
Think about the weight of that statement.
I live by the spreads and the story they tell. It’s my job to read said story and see what others are seeing. Or hiding. And here I am actually writing that they aren’t telling the correct story.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should not have dismantled the Denver Broncos. The New York Jets should have competed against the Indianapolis Colts. And the Seattle Seahawks should not have beaten the Dallas Cowboys by a touchdown.
There were all ‘obvious’ picks. ‘Obvious’ does not win. Not regularly.
Yet here we are, four weeks into a season and questioning just how much we can trust the numbers.
It won’t last forever. Nothing does. But it’s important that we recognize it now. Why? Because we’ve seen this play out before.
The infamous 2016 season was my worst on record. It was the only season in which I finished under .500 with my against-the-spread picks. I continually pounded my fist against the table and insisted that it would turn around. It did. Just not until the following year.
The problem, at the time, was that it was unprecedented. Almost no season had seen that amount of ‘easy’ and ‘obvious’ picks cruise to victories. The Saints and Falcons were playing? An easy 60 points. New England hosted Miami? An easy cover. Whatever felt too good to be true was…actually true.
Now that we’ve seen the film, we know what’s possible. I will never fully ignore the potential for a ‘trap’ — it’s how this industry is built — but I will be more lenient with some of my rules in 2020 compared to the past.
Thankfully, Week 4 gives us the opportunity to put this new outlook to the test.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 12-7 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 25-23 (Last Week: 9-7)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
We’ve reached the point of no return.
The New York Jets have proven to be even less competitive than noncompetitive, and they now head into a short week with an 0-3 schedule, the worst-ranked offense in both yards and points, and a legitimate question as to whether-or-not their head coach will make it to Week 5.
There’s bad. And then there’s the Jets.
There’s also the Denver Broncos and a third-string quarterback favored against the Jets.