On Thursday Night, when the 2020 National Football League season officially begins, I will sit down on my couch and let out an audible sigh of relief.
I’m sure I won’t be the only one.
Sports matter to us. Football matters to us. The luxury of being able to watch others compete and extract joy from that competition matters to us.
Is it a need? No. But it has become so ingrained in our lives and hearts that the absence of it causes pain.
We now know how true this is.
Months ago, the world watched as the Kansas City Chiefs pulled off an improbable comeback to win Super Bowl LIV. Following the game, we filed our thoughts away appropriately and went to bed. We thought nothing of what would come next.
And then nothing came next.
The world shut down. Sports were cancelled. And football — the bridge between me and you — was in jeopardy.
Again, when the game begins and my 6,000 word article has been written, published, and digested by those who enjoy it, I will let out a sigh of relief. We’ve navigated through some uncharted waters and still reached land. Is it in the same condition as when we left? Absolutely not. But land is safety and football is comfort. We’ll have it.
What we won’t have is a preseason. Almost everyone I have ever met is in favor of eliminating the preseason — myself included — but there are some valuable takeaways we will be missing. In addition to legitimate position battles, the loss of a preseason means the loss of hype. And we love hype.
Where else will we get last year’s Cleveland Browns being treated like an obvious Super Bowl Contender? What about the Kansas City Chiefs? They went 1-3 in the preseason. Surely someone was worried.
We lose that. It’s true. But, I am happy to present something else that I have learned over the years.
I never write a picks column without multiple uses of the word “perception.” That won’t change. Perception is everything when looking at spreads, and the goal is to find which perception is wrong and which is justified.
I always use the preseason as a gauge for perception — hence the mention of the Chiefs and Browns from 2019. But I’ve also noticed a surprising trend with perception that makes it that-much-more powerful.
The results don’t matter.
Perception is not driven by output. It’s driven by what people want the output to be.
In addition to finding where the perception and numbers are wrong, part of my job is in playing with numbers. I need to find the numbers that look good but aren’t — and vice versa. In other words, numbers lie, and I need to find the ones that do.
But here’s the catch. People will lie about the numbers to fit their narratives. Crazy right? Who knew that people lie?
No matter what the Browns actually did in the preseason, those who were hyping the team would find the narrative they wanted to hear. If quarterback Baker Mayfield threw an interception, it would be explained away as him “working on something.” If he connected for a touchdown pass, he would be “game ready.”
With results being irrelevant, we actually should be grateful for the lack of a preseason. We don’t need it, and, if anything, it gets in the way of what we already expect to happen. After all, we spent an entire offseason preparing for Week 1. Four exhibition games should never change that. For us, it doesn’t. Maybe it’s a good thing that it can’t change it for others, too.
Outdated perceptions will remain intact.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: —– (Last Week: —)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: —– (Last Week: —–)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
In the introduction of this column, I mentioned the sigh of relief I will breathe when the National Football League returns to action on Thursday night. Said breath won’t long. Shortly after I kickoff, I will start pacing. Relaxation will cease to exist, and the nerves will surface.
We will be minutes into a new season, and the stakes will already be high.
It isn’t because of this column or the record of my picks. It isn’t even the pressure to do well. I’ve established myself. I’m not concerned.
I’m nervous about Thursday Night Football in particular because of the matchup. I don’t like the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans, and I don’t like that it will begin the season.
It is the feeling of discomfort, however, that adds additional intrigue to my approach to the game. The fact that I don’t feel comfortable with it means that I don’t want to lean in a certain direction. And it means that I should.
I don’t want to go the doctor, but I know I should. I don’t want to negotiate a better price at the car dealership, but I know I should.