It’s the most wonderful time of the year! You know the tune. Sing along, won’t you?
I might have typed those words last year around this time. And the year before that. And the September before that. That’s because the most wonderful times of the year are the start and end to an NFL season.
Really, it’s just the time I get to either write my first picks article or the most fun of a given year: this one.
As always, I scour the internet for the craziest props I could find solely for my entertainment — and I mean that, where I really don’t take any action with these picks other than share them with you. Still, I love it.
As always, 2020 has left us with a different playing field than in the past. In this case, I’ve found fewer props than usual. No matter. If there’s a length of song to be guessed or a setlist for a Halftime Show performer, I’m all over it!
With that being said, we lead with our usual disclaimer. The prop bets below are compiled from different websites, and the opinions given is purely satirical. Do not use this as advice, in any way.
This year, I happened to use multiple sources for the Prop Bets. Here they are: My Bookie, Insider, USA Today, The Sports Geek, FanDuel SportsBook, and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Coin Toss – Heads or Tails
I. Am. Loyal. I’ll sink with the same ship year-in-and-year-out. Maybe it’s because I know that, as soon as I finally make the switch to ‘tails,’ ‘heads’ will start winning. I’m not missing that moment.
Prediction: Heads
How long will it take Jazmine Sullivan and Eric Church to sing the National Anthem? Over/Under 2 minutes, 3 seconds
For the first time since I have been writing this column, I can actually see a clear path for the ‘over.’ That is, there is something more than “I think this person will ‘milk’ the last note and stretch it.” What, in particular, is leading to this newfound expectation? The simple fact that two people will be singing the National Anthem together. As always, the narrative should be built into the price of doing business. It’s not! The time to beat for this year’s National Anthem is actually one second less than last year’s. Normally, I like to look deeper than the surface, but I can’t ignore a direct path. The only problem? Selfishly, I can’t continue my annual tradition of begging the singer to speed up. Instead, I’ll see if it’s more fun to stare into the screen and implore them to slow down. Maybe.
Prediction: Over
Who will sing the final note of the National Anthem? Jazmine Sullivan (+125), Eric Church (+275), or Both (-180)
This might be my favorite prop of the whole article. In what world will we get two singers for the National Anthem, but only one of them gets to complete the song with the famous “final note”? Not this one! If they’re singing the iconic Anthem together, then they are finishing the iconic Anthem together.
Prediction: Both
Will any scoring drive take less time than the National Anthem? Yes (-400) or No (+250)
The odds are strong that the answer is “yes,” but this feels like a combination play with the ‘under.’ Specifically, if we aren’t seeing touchdowns in bunches, then we probably won’t have either team deliver a quick scoring drive. It’s obviously possible — and the question was likely created because of how powerful both offenses are — but I’d be totally fine taking the nice odds and continually looking for ways that the game does not go over its point total.
Prediction: No
Will The Weeknd change outfits during the Halftime Show? Yes (-280) or No (+185)
As much as I joke throughout the majority of these yearly prop bet columns, I do take pride in knowing most of the performers and some tendencies to go along with it — I could have written an entire article on Jennifer Lopez and Shakira, last year! Here, I know nothing about The Weeknd. Am I even supposed to capitalize the “T” in “The”? I think so. Regardless, I am supposed to research whatever I will write, but I’m also one who trusts the numbers. That, and there is some history with this one. It’s almost impossible to think that someone would headline the Halftime Show and not have an outfit change.
Prediction: Yes
Will The Weeknd test positive for COVID-19 before performing at the Halftime Show? Yes (+1200) or No (-6000)
I’m never one to lay -6000 odds on anything, but can you imagine the chaos this would cause? I’m all for chaos in sports, but I’m not hoping that it comes from someone getting sick and being unable to actually perform at the Halftime Show. Still, I found this one interesting because of the nature of the past 11 months.
Prediction: No
How many times will the New England Patriots get mentioned? Over/Under 2
I write about it every year. The broadcast does not go off-script nearly as much as we would like to believe. From my personal experience — and there are no numbers to back this up other than my two eyes and two ears — CBS actually stays on track most of all. Therefore, even we get one mention of the New England Patriots, we aren’t likely to get two.
Prediction: Under
What color will the liquid be that gets dumped on the winning coach? Red (+150), Orange (+175), Yellow/Green (+300), Purple (+600), Clear/Water (+625), Blue (+650)
Look which color has moved to the front of the line!! Is this the year? Is it? IS NOW THE TIME? I pick ‘red’ every year because of the dramatic ‘blood-splattering effect after a hard-fought battle’ image — artistic poetry, I know — and I can’t quit it now. THIS IS IT!
Prediction: Red
And now time for some actual picks. These are mainly being listed because I like the odds, even if the picks, themselves, are either contradictory or unlikely to hit. As always, do your research, be careful, and play responsibly.
1st Half 2-minute warning will NOT occur with exactly 2:00 left on the clock (+260) – Admittedly, I’ve been wrong with this pick every time I have made it in a Super Bowl. That’s also because I have typically went with the “yes” answer. Here, I’m going against it and getting nice odds in the process. Despite how the game actually unfolds in terms of scoring frequency, I do expect either offense to be aggressive at the end of the half. That increases the likelihood that a play is being run right against the two-minute warning.
Any quarterback WILL throw a forward pass after a lateral (flea flicker) (+225) – I considered another prop in which at least three players throw a forward pass in this game, but decided against it. I simply can’t see anyone other than Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes attempting a pass. Maybe it happens — and that’s why I’m not actually picking against it — but I won’t wait all game in hopes that Mike Evans is tossing the ball to Tom Brady instead of it going the opposite way. I do, however, like the idea of a trick play in which the quarterback throws a pass after a flea flicker, and I love the odds associated with them.
There WILL be a 2-point conversion attempt (-140) – I’m possibly walking into some ‘traps,’ here, but I have found myself gravitating toward the picks with excellent odds. -140 for an event that could potentially happen without any need — in other words, a team can simply opt to be more aggressive — is something I won’t ignore. And, of course, if we expect a decent amount of scoring, said two-point conversion might actually become a necessity.
Any player WILL NOT score at least two touchdowns (+290) – Look at those odds! They’re astronomical! To be completely honest, I can’t figure out if this is simply a mistake. I searched every other Sportsbook for this same exact bet and came up empty — this one came from FanDuel Sportsbook. For that reason, I’ll take a small risk with the tremendous odds. The flip side is worth noting, however. If these odds are not a mistake, then it’s a near guarantee that the answer is “yes,” despite how many talented players will take the field for both teams. That would essentially mean that the odds being so lopsided should read as an indication that someone will score two touchdowns. Carry this possibility into your fantasy lineup build, where these odds say that it is quite likely that one player dominates.
Tyreek Hill OVER 94.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – This is probably the most ‘obvious’ play of the game — and longtime readers of mine know how much I despise taking the ‘obvious’ route — but Tyreek Hill absolutely torched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this year’s prior matchup. Clearly, the Buccaneers will make it a point to slow him down, but “slowing Hill down” and stopping him completely are separate efforts. He’s been a monster, this year, and his speed always makes him a threat to rack up yards at a feverish pace.
Travis Kelce OVER 8.5 Receptions (+110) – The number is high, and the bait is there, but I’m taking it. Coupling this blurb with the one about Hill’s receiving yards, it is likely that Tampa Bay’s defense is forced to pay more attention to the speedy wide receiver already with a massive head-to-head game than the tight end, Travis Kelce. As I wrote about Hill, Kelce has also been an absolute monster, and it has resulted in nine games with at least eight catches — including the postseason.
Ronald Jones II OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards (-118) – I know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a weird obsession with Leonard Fournette as they insist on him serving as the team’s lead running back, but I’m prepared to capitalize if the team allows Ronald Jones II to get even a fraction of the workload. Admittedly, I’d love to pick Jones in a prop that combines rushing and receiving yards, but I’ll take what I can get in anticipation of him playing a larger role than the market expects.
The game WILL NOT be tied after the first score (-130) – I find this one to be particularly interesting because I do not expect a lead change late in the game, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have a tie score at one point outside of the opening 0-0. It’s difficult to imagine this game ever getting out-of-hand for either team, and that will lead to the opportunity to tie it.
The final play of the game WILL be a score — with 0:00 on the clock (+1100) – Admittedly, I’m swinging for the fences here, but I am tying into the pick above. If we have a close game toward the end, regardless of lead changes, there’s a distinct possibility that one team is scoring to close out the game. Likely? No. Impossible? Also no. I’ll take the big payout if it happens.