We certainly have a unique situation with this year’s playoffs in that we will be dealing with a seven-team field and only one bye week per conference. It’s the first time we’ve had this setup, so obviously history won’t be overly helpful.
This leads to another oddity.
Last year, I knocked both top seeds off my list of potential Super Bowl winners, and that led to tremendous value in other spots. Basically, I was able to widen the net without carrying any premiums for those with a first-round bye and home field advantage.
This year, only the teams with home field advantage have a bye, and both conferences feature clear leaders atop the food chain. Both fit the bill as teams that could win the Super Bowl — where I was eagerly fading both the 49ers and Ravens as we entered last year’s postseason. As always, this forces us into a game of numbers.
NFL Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV – Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook via TheLines.com:
1st Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (2.25 to 1)
1st Seed – Green Bay Packers (4.5 to 1)
2nd Seed – Buffalo Bills (7 to 1)
2nd Seed – New Orleans Saints (7.5 to 1)
5th Seed – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10 to 1)
5th Seed – Baltimore Ravens (11 to 1)
3rd Seed – Seattle Seahawks (13 to 1)
3rd Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers (22 to 1)
4th Seed – Tennessee Titans (28 to 1)
6th Seed – Los Angeles Rams (30 to 1)
7th Seed – Indianapolis Colts (40 to 1)
6th Seed – Cleveland Browns (50 to 1)
7th Seed – Chicago Bears (80 to 1) — odds via VegasInsider
4th Seed – Washington Football Team (80 to 1) — odds via VegasInsider
As I write every year, I’ll knock out the few teams that I can’t imagine targeting as potential Super Bowl champions for this season. Indeed, the odds are tempting, but I’m simply not going to throw away any fraction of my account ‘hoping’ that a longshot survives the gauntlet of the playoff field. The Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns would need to break the mold in order to surge to a championship with questionable quarterback play, and I wouldn’t roll the dice with either. Of course, the Washington Football Team is the longest of longshots — despite being a 4-seed — but they are a unique situation. If you really wanted to get creative with them, you could simply bet them to win each game along the way and pick up a hefty bonus each time it happens. We have to expect them to be underdogs in every game they play. The most likely scenario is that they only play one.
Continuing with the idea of knocking out teams from Super Bowl contention, I have to attack the biggest elephant in the room. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are offering tremendous value at their odds, but