For the past few years, I have split the annual season preview and picks into two articles — by NFC and AFC — and nothing changes in that regard, despite the unorthodox season. Where we do find change, however, is in the additional Wild Card team added to each conference. We need to consider this when looking ahead to the season’s final landscape. We also had plenty of movement during the offseason, but no preseason through which we could see each franchise’s ‘new look.’
Below are the full season predictions for the 2020 National Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and William Hill Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -125 was used.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals – 6-10, 4th in NFC West
This one will be a little too easy to write. Maybe not too easy to predict accurately — if I could answer that, I’d only predict accurately — but certainly easy to write. Why? Because the Arizona Cardinals are looking more-and-more like “the team.”
And I always sell “the team.”
It’s easy because the price is based on supply-and-demand. The more the demand, the higher the price. “The team” is in demand, so…connect those dots.
The Cardinals have a mobile quarterback entering his second season. Actually, they have a supremely mobile quarterback entering his second season. Bump up the perception a bit based on the addition of that adverb. Can anyone think of another team in recent memory that had a supremely mobile quarterback in his second season that turned into one of the best teams in the league? Everyone? Okay, put your hands down. I get it.
The Cardinals appear to be this year’s Ravens. And that appearance is both lazy and inaccurate.
Arizona’s Kyler Murray is being asked to develop into Lamar Jackson. But, why? Have we seen Jackson continue to dominate defenses for an entire career? Have we seen it for more than 22 games? I get why anyone would want Jackson’s production from 2019, but I remain firm in my argument that it is not sustainable. A quarterback who looks to run-first — and not with the intention of passing — is an injury risk and, eventually, beatable. Murray bypassing his throwing development is a bad idea. That’s not to mention that Murray is four inches shorter than Jackson — according to Pro-Football-Reference — and a lot less threatening to a defender trying to make a tackle — albeit probably more elusive.
The other major factor against Arizona is the head coach. Baltimore had a Super Bowl-winning longterm veteran in John Harbaugh at the helm. Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury — the man tasked with getting the most out of Murray — led his team to only five wins in his lone season in the NFL — that’s right, at any level. Where some may argue that his defense was the problem, Kingsbury’s offense — the side of the ball on which he is supposed to excel — ranked 21st in yards-per-game.
Maybe now it’s easy to see why I sell “the team.”
San Francisco 49ers – 8-8, 3rd in NFC West – UNDER 10.5 Wins (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Is it possible that a team can approach the top of the mountain, get better, yet slide down said mountain? Actually, yes. It’s a weird phenomenon, but it’s something we have seen more frequently over recent years.
In the past, I remember digging through Super Bowl losers to see the after-effect. Many times, it would result in a ‘down’ year. There was a stretch of time, however, where this trend was broken. Thankfully for those of us who respect trends, it has been repaired.
Including the Rams from last season, the last six teams to lose the Super Bowl all saw their win totals decrease.
This makes sense for two reasons. The first is that regression is natural for any team that wins upwards of 12 games — often the requirement for a first-round bye and an easier path to the Super Bowl. The second is that the losing team often had holes it was able to cover during the regular season, but with two weeks for an equally-worthy opponent to prepare, said holes were able to be exposed. The following season, more teams can attack similar types of holes.
The San Francisco 49ers truly had one of the great defenses in 2019, and there is little reason to expect that it would suddenly falter in the encore. This will help the team stay afloat and avoid a complete collapse, but the division remains extremely competitive and the lopsided run-to-pass-ratio means the team will need to be nearly perfect to maintain its high watermark. That’s asking too much.
Seattle Seahawks – 10-6, 2nd in NFC West, Wild Card Berth – OVER 9.5 Wins (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook and William Hill)
It finally happened. And we now need a moment of silence to recognize what was lost.
For the past few years, the win total for the Seattle Seahawks consistently was set at nine or lower. For every single season of Russell Wilson’s career, he led his team to a winning record. I repeat this insane statistic whenever I can because it remains one of the most remarkable streaks in today’s generation of football. Again, not a non-losing record, but a winning one.
Finally, the win total is making us pay for it. Will we? Of course. At least, I will. Wilson wins games — Seattle has won at least ten in all but one of Wilson’s eight seasons — and the most important part is that he has found this success with a variety of different team styles. Year’s ago, the defense was outstanding. The Seahawks won. Now, the defense is downright bad. The Seahawks won.
Russell Wilson remains the most under-appreciated All-Time Great quarterback we have seen, but he continues to build to his resume on a yearly basis. We no longer have the free square in terms of the win total, but we have another strong showing from Seattle ahead of us.
Los Angeles Rams – 11-5, NFC West Winner – OVER 8 Wins (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I love when a team moves as expected from one season to the next. I love it even more when it quietly landed on a key number.
The Los Angeles Rams were in the Super Bowl just two years ago. Technically, the Super Bowl in which they played was only separated in our minds by one full season. Still, the memory of last year that most football fans would have is that the Rams followed a pathetic showing in the biggest game of their lives with a mediocre regular season that did not end in a playoff berth.
“Mediocre” by the standards of the reigning NFC Champions. Not at all “mediocre” for the league.
In fact, I wonder how many people remember the Rams’ record in 2019. Did you? In a moment of complete honesty, I didn’t! This is because they landed exactly in the middle of fans’ expectations and a reasonable outcome.
Los Angeles was 9-7 in 2019. Put another way, the Rams had a winning record. There is such an important, but thin, line between 8-8 and 9-7 and the Rams stayed on the right side of it. This is coupled with them failing to meet the high win total of 10. Again, a perfect landing spot because Los Angeles burned those who backed them, but didn’t completely fail.
The Rams still have an excellent head coach — all three of Sean McVay’s seasons ended with winning records, and he did lead his team to a Super Bowl appearance — and a quarterback who isn’t going anywhere. Consistency matters between head coach and quarterback, while some of the skill positions can be fluid. Such as running back.
The story of the Rams that we’ll hear constantly is the departure of running back Todd Gurley — especially in fantasy football circles. But, why can’t this be an upgrade by subtraction? Gurley lacked the explosiveness we had seen in the past, and his departure is, at worst, a neutral swap. The rest is positive, especially with the overall perception of the Rams being too low.
NFC South
Chicago Bears – 7-9, 4th in NFC North
It should not be surprising that, when looking ahead to predict the outcome of a given situation, I am uncomfortable with uncertainty. The Chicago Bears are full of uncertainty.
Last year, selling Chicago was one of my favorite preseason plays, but there were so many factors pointing in the same direction that it was a pick I had to make. This year, there are an equal amount of factors, but no uniformity.
The Bears brought in Nick Foles to “compete with” incumbent quarterback Mitch Trubisky. While the Titans proved to be the rare team that could survive with two quarterbacks fighting over the same spot, it’s generally a recipe for failure. That is, if we believe in the competition existing.
Most likely, Foles is the starting quarterback — by the time this is published, it might even be announced. But there are so many takeaways from this move that it’s almost impossible for it to be a complete success.
If Foles gets hurt — which he is prone to do — then the Bears turn back to Trubisky, whom they just replaced three years after selecting him second overall in the NFL Draft. It’s hard to imagine that goes well. And what happens if Foles is ineffective? He eventually did play four games with the Jaguars, and he was winless while throwing only three touchdown passes and two interceptions in 117 attempts. Could you imagine the controversy if Foles starts out poorly?
Oddly enough, as much as I don’t like uncertainty, I do like writing about a pick and thinking through it as I go. It helps solidify that I’m not missing something glaring. In this case, the Bears could be good, but it would defy the odds. I’m looking for the path of least resistance and, even after a ‘down year,’ there is still more decline in store for Chicago.
Detroit Lions Please register or login to read the rest of the article.