Despite splitting the overall weekend at 3-3 against-the-spread, the two confidence picks both won in the Wild Card Round. This is the beauty of the postseason’s early games.
In Week 1 of a given year, I will write about using the preseason and prior season’s results as the only metrics on which we can judge a team. In the playoffs, it’s similar. We have a direct pool from which we could draw our samples.
The beauty of this is that said samples can be misleading.
I prepare my picks initially without regard to winners of the game. That matters, but it’s secondary. I want to know who will beat the number. Because, as always, that number is the key to telling a story.
In the Divisional Round, we have much less of an edge against the number than we did one week ago. This is largely because we already saw half of the field in-play. In fact, for the first time, we saw more than half of the field in-play, as only two teams were on a bye for the Wild Card Round.
Now, every team is taking the field, and we can gauge a combination of past results and known overreactions to find the value in the numbers.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 52-42-3 (Last Week: 2-0)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 130-125-7 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
I try to never be ‘obvious’ with anything I do. I don’t like the ‘obvious pick.’ I don’t take the ‘obvious read’ of the news. And I don’t expect the ‘obvious outcome.’
Usually, this works because the spread is designed to capture the ‘obvious’ on the losing side. As I always write, it’s a flexible number that moves. There’s a reason for that move, and the reason is as simple as misleading people in the wrong direction.
With