NFL Picks: 2020 AFC Full Season Predictions

For the past few years, I have split the annual season preview and picks into two articles — by NFC and AFC — and nothing changes in that regard, despite the unorthodox season. Where we do find change, however, is in the additional Wild Card team added to each conference. We need to consider this when looking ahead to the season’s final landscape. We also had plenty of movement during the offseason, but no preseason through which we could see each franchise’s ‘new look.’

Below are the full season predictions for the 2020 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and William Hill Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -125 was used.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers – 3-13, 4th in AFC West – UNDER 8 Wins (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

It appears as if the Los Angeles Chargers have tipped their hand.

Like the Dolphins, Los Angeles drafted a quarterback who will almost certainly sit behind a veteran for the foreseeable future. But there’s a difference between the two teams. That is, I’m not sure Chargers have the advantage with either the veteran or the future starting quarterback. Basically, is Tyrod Taylor going to keep the team afloat long enough for rookie Justin Herbert to be ready? And, when Herbert is ready, will he be better than Tagovailoa? I doubt the answer to either question is “yes,” let alone both going in the right direction.

If there is one similarity with Miami, it’s that Los Angeles’ offensive line also ranks near the bottom of the league.

The only questionable element here is that the win total is suspiciously high — especially compared to Miami’s — for a team with an expected quarterback change. The only explanation is that Herbert plays sooner than we think and does quite well. Still, I’m cautiously avoiding the Chargers.

Denver Broncos – 9-7, 3rd in AFC West

I always admit when emotion has entered the equation. It would make sense for said emotion to normally be “bias,” but I’ve set aside my biases in the years of writing these columns. Instead, the emotion that appears every-so-often is “FOMO,” or fear-of-missing-out.

I’m afraid of missing out on the Denver Broncos, because I see how good of a sleeper they can be in 2020. We all know I love sleepers.

If quarterback Drew Lock is healthy and anywhere near as effective as we saw in 2019, then Denver should be a winning team in 2020. Period. Lock was 4-1 in his rookie season, and had generally good numbers across-the-board. It’s all positive for the Broncos, including the addition of playmakers around Lock.

Why, then, am I not buying in heavily?

I’m not entirely sure how the Broncos want to approach Lock, and that gives me pause. Denver’s head coach is defensive-minded, and recent history has shown that defense-first head coaches don’t generally mix well with young quarterbacks. There is an inherent power struggle between protecting a team’s defense and the risk that young quarterbacks carry. We tend to see fewer designed pass attempts as a result, and that both stunts the quarterback’s growth and limits the potential impact on offense.

Put another way, if Lock isn’t allowed to lead an offense, then his 2019 performance is irrelevant. This is why I am not ‘all-in’ on Denver. I expect the Broncos to be better, and I plan to see them fighting for one of the final Wild Card spots — it also doesn’t help that Denver shares a division with the Chiefs — and probably gliding past their win total. Projecting nine wins helps satisfy my FOMO, but I won’t go any farther than that with the amount of uncertainty surrounding the offensive gameplan.

Las Vegas Raiders – 9-7, 2nd in AFC West, Wild Card Berth – OVER 7 Wins (-121 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

One of my favorite words to use when looking for value is “forgotten.” I want a “forgotten” team. Preferably with a “forgotten” storyline. Definitely in a position where it is easy to be “forgotten.”

Look at the AFC West. Is there anywhere else we can go with the division winner besides the Chiefs? Not with any conviction. Of course, Kansas City could fail, but the likeliness that it doesn’t forces every other team in the division to fight for a Wild Card berth. And, when comparing Wild Card teams across a conference, the pool grows much larger. Where it is easy to be “forgotten.”

What also gets forgotten regularly is that Jon Gruden has a ten-year deal with the Las Vegas Raiders. He’s not in a rush to make his team a contender. But, he has already put two years into rebuilding and still has a quarterback capable of winning games. It should surprise absolutely no one if the Raiders come out and start winning immediately. This makes them one of the best sleeper teams in a division where many will be, you guessed it, forgotten.

Kansas City Chiefs – 11-5, AFC West Winner

I refuse to be lazy and simply take a team at face value, but I cannot see any way other than injury where the Kansas City Chiefs are not right back in the mix atop the league. We saw everything from quarterback Patrick Mahomes last year. He had an injury that cost him game time, playoff deficits to overcome, and a Super Bowl victory in which he carried his team. Everything.

Will the Chiefs take a step backward this year? Probably, but only in the sense that it is nearly impossible for a team to repeat as Champion with the league’s setup. Then again, 2020 might be the best time for a repeat, as the cancellation of all preseason games means that teams with consistency at head coach and quarterback are probably in a better position than those still looking for answers. Anything can happen in the National Football League, but give me Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid as a baseline, and I’m generally optimistic. The only hesitation is with the win total, as it is certainly inflated to the point where it might be out-of-reach.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals – 6-10, 4th in AFC North

There is simply no way around tying the Cincinnati Bengals’ prediction to the outcome of quarterback Joe Burrow’s season. If he is an immediate star, then why wouldn’t Cincinnati be competitive? If he needs time to develop, then we’re obviously looking at a lower win total in 2020.

It’s easy to assume that the latter is true for Burrow, as basically every rookie needs “time to develop.” But, we have seen rookies win right away, rare as it might be. We have to, at least, be open to the idea that Burrow has a positive impact in Year One.

It is, of course, not likely. And, even if Cincinnati is better — which, compared to the two wins of last year, “better” is a target that is almost impossible to miss — it will have plenty of competition in its division.

What’s most concerning for the Bengals is that Burrow appears to be the only guaranteed piece of the future. Granted, most teams will change drastically in any given three-year span, but we did not see enough from head coach Zac Taylor to believe that he will be the one to guide Burrow over the next decade. Again, unless Burrow can single-handedly win games, Cincinnati has a long way to go.

Baltimore Ravens