We have to give the National Football League some credit. The decision to fill Week 17 with only division games has continued to lead to incredible drama. This year, we barely had any major implications at stake – at least, compared to season finales of the past – and still the games delivered.
Maybe it was because we had tremendous value with teams like the Ravens or Titans. Maybe it was because of the shuffling of seeds that now force the Seahawks and Patriots – two of the premier franchises of the last decade – to play on Wild Card Weekend. Or maybe it was because we had so many games that, by virtue of volume, alone, we were going to be entertained.
Unfortunately, we have the exact opposite situation, this week.
In last year’s Wild Card Weekend column, I specifically noted how great some of the matchups were. It was in contrast to the prior year’s duds. Now, we are more closely tied to “dud” than “great” when going through Saturday and Sunday’s contests. Of course, the nature of this column is to find an advantage and, many times, this comes from otherwise overlooked games.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 55-42-3 (Last Week: 2-3)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 137-112-7 (Last Week: 11-5)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
If we’re following the introduction to this column by noting games that are defined as ‘overlooked,’ then the Postseason opener between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans is arguably the most important matchup of the weekend. Not only does it feature two of the teams with the worst odds to win the Super Bowl – which means it will be viewed as a ‘throwaway’ in which the outcome is relative meaningless – but it also opened with a generic spread of three points from the home team. Of course, seventeen weeks and six years into my columns, I still feel the obligation to point out that a home field is not worth three points, but the use of such a spread is further proof that the football-watching world is not going to put too much effort into picking Saturday afternoon’s game.
So we will.
One of the most important elements of picking games against-the-spread is a word I will use constantly in the first half of the season, but only in select spots in the latter portion: overreaction. The beautiful value in overreaction is that it appears constantly throughout a season. It is just buried under other factors. Like statistics. Or playoff races. Or, as I inferred, time.
There is no real set standard for how long it takes for overreaction to settle. Usually, the shorter timeframe yields the better results precisely because other factors have not yet interfered, but what happens