What a week.
I can’t tell if it should be considered ‘eerie’ or a self-fulfilling prophecy. Either way, it was critical. And it’s more critical that everyone understands why it’s so critical.
Last week’s introduction focused wholly on approaching picks carefully after big wins. The key was that, when we regress – because we will regress – we need to protect ourselves. So, there were fewer confidence picks, and these became the ones where either trends or perceptions mattered most.
And we won.
Even if we had ended with a slightly losing record for the week, we won in two key areas. The first in the confidence picks, which should always be weighed more highly than the others. The second – which may only matter to some of you – is in the competition against others. If you play in a pool, go look at the average score for last week. Look at where people are starting to settle. And then look at how important it is to tread water.
Last week was a disaster for most who pick games against-the-spread. It was a major regression that wiped out many. Those “many” weren’t random. They were the ones who had started off this season on a hot streak. They were the ones who became overconfident. They were the ones who weren’t careful.
I don’t write this to knock anybody. I’ve made plenty of mistakes that have wiped out positive momentum. I write it because it has to be repeated again and again just how thin the line is between failure and success. Failure, here, is negating a good week with a terrible one. Success is slowly staying upright in the fight long enough to deliver the winning punch.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 17-10-1 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 35-27-1 (Last Week: 8-7)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
I get worried with constantly going back to the same well time-after-time. It’s not a matter of ‘due’ or luck running out. It’s just the fact that, if odds of a certain event happening can change to make said event less profitable, it will. Obviously, it will then be less valuable.
It seems like the Seattle Seahawks never get less valuable.
I’ve probably written about this a dozen times in the past 14-or-so months, but quarterback Russell Wilson has never had a non-winning season. He has never had a team go 8-8 or worse. And yet, the Seahawks’ over-under win total entering 2018 was eight games. This year, it was eight-and-a-half.
How does this keep happening? How does Seattle – with a quarterback whose history has been nothing but outstanding in the same setups – continue to provide value? It must be that others are worried about the trend as much as I have been worried that a streak will end. Still, in the face of value, I can’t look away.
But, as much as the season-long expectations for Seattle continue to produce value, there is one area where perception overrules all: