That was awesome.
This may sound silly – and even anger some people – but I never mind following a winning week with a losing one. As long as the losing weeks are small.
To follow a winning one with a winning one is nothing short of awesome. But, it goes deeper than that.
In Week 1, we were able to use the offseason as method to find the disconnect between perception and reality. The following week, we exploited overreactions. Then, in Week 3 – as I even detailed in the introduction – everything was in-play. This is where it could have been dicey. To win a week like that – in which numbers would snap back to place – is, again, awesome.
It is also not something to be taken lightly. The reason why some winning weeks are followed by losing ones is exactly because we don’t always have the same setups. But, there’s also the opportunity of a ‘false positive.’ Belief that things will always be successful.
I don’t write this to disparage my picks for this week. I like them just as much as I like any other week. I mention it because, if you’re putting these picks into action, you control the risk. Control it appropriately.
For this reason, I have a slightly smaller list of confidence picks. Those, in particular, have been outstanding over the last two weeks, finishing 11-3 against-the-spread. Again, tread lightly.
And prepare to keep this momentum going.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 13-8-1 (Last Week: 5-2)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 27-20-1 (Last Week: 10-6)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
We couldn’t get exactly what we wanted out of the Green Bay Packers in Week 3, but this is why we pay attention to a team’s path on a weekly basis. Specifically, we focus our energy to ‘what should happen’ and ‘what is likely to happen next.’ There is a correlation between the two. When one team fails in a positive setup, it doesn’t mean that it actually ‘failed.’ It just means that we have to wait for another opportunity to play it.
Like Thursday Night Football.
Staying with the topic of “failing,” how can we argue that any team “failed” more than the Philadelphia Eagles over the last two weeks? Not only did it lose an absolute heart-breaker against the Atlanta Falcons – on national television, which also matters for Thursday’s Primetime game – but it hosted the Lions – the only team not to beat the Cardinals in a head-to-head matchup – and lost. In two painful weeks, the Eagles dropped from 1-0 to 1-2 and now have more questions than answers.
Moving back to the Packers, one of the main knocks on the team prior to last week’s game was its offense. A head coach who specialized on the side of the ball that also features an elite talent at quarterback should have been producing at a much higher rate. Instead, Green Bay still sits in the bottom-third of the league for yards gained, and leaned on two fumble recoveries in the Packers’ own territory that directly led to 14 points against the Broncos. The team might be 3-0, but it is incredibly deceiving to pretend that it isn’t without its flaws. The same flaws that look even more masked due to Green Bay’s 11-point victory.
Conversely, the Eagles may have a losing record, but their point differential is a reasonable -2. And, it would have been higher had Philadelphia not allowed a last second, meaningless touchdown to Washington on Opening Day.
If we compare the ‘close calls’ and ‘hidden realities’ for each team, we can argue that the Packers and Eagles could actually switch records and still look exactly the same as how they have played. Neither has impressed. Neither has been a complete disappointment. Yet, through three games, two separate them in the standings. And Green Bay’s defense is a major candidate for regression, while Philadelphia is in position to positively correct.
The two teams meeting on Thursday is perfect for the combination of recent images – the Eagles losing on Primetime and then at home to the Lions – and the numbers that are currently skewed in the wrong direction. Green Bay is still on-pace for an excellent season, but it needs a moment to breathe before continuing in its upward path.
The Eagles win by a field goal and beat the spread.
Confidence Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4)
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
Is it ever going to change for the Atlanta Falcons? Will they ever consistently be as good as their talent suggests?
In fairness to the Falcons, they were supposed to lose to the Colts, last week. They were underdogs and Indianapolis was one of my confidence picks. I cannot, in any way, dismiss Atlanta for following the plan.
But