I know I constantly write about how much I love Opening Day. I do. But it’s Week 2 that always has my heart.
I always write about perception, reality, and the disconnect between the two. Can we ever have a more severe disconnect than people making snap decisions after just one week of football? No. This is it.
This is the week where people will go against their preseason beliefs. Will declare a team ‘dead.’ Will crown a team ‘champion.’
Will change their minds.
We won’t. This is the week in which we will hold firm to the teams we projected to be good, bad, and somewhere in-between. We will waver, occasionally, in select spots – as you will see in this column – but only with valid reason.
We will take the best week for perception to be off and find the reality hidden within.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 2-5-1 (Last Week: 2-5-1)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 7-8-1 (Last Week: 7-8-1)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Listen to Episode 9 of our free podcast here:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
As I will write in the blurb about the Lions’ game, I found myself disappointed by the head coaching that I expected to be better. Bruce Arians’ return to the National Football League was not impressive. If anything, it was head-scratching. He arguably wasn’t the biggest factor to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing on Opening Day, but he certainly didn’t make things easier for the team.
What comes out of Tampa Bay’s loss isn’t the struggles of Arians on the sideline. It is the struggles of quarterback Jameis Winston on the field. But, we know this. We understand how dangerous it is to trust Winston. Which is why we trusted the combination of Winston and Arians. Now, however, shouldn’t we revisit this “trust”?
Actually, no. Not yet, anyway.
If we are to be reasonable about what we should expect from a team, then we can’t simply dismiss it because of a bad start. The Buccaneers are not going to be good this year, but they shouldn’t be terrible. They shouldn’t be the Dolphins. They should have moments of competitiveness.
Like a division game on national television.
Conversely, the same record keeps playing for the Carolina Panthers. The team is inconsistent. When it’s good, it’s great. Otherwise, we have an Opening Day loss at home. One that appeared to be close, but also involved a blocked punt and missed kick by the opponent in the fourth quarter.
If we approach Tampa Bay with care, then the same must be said about Carolina. To ask the team to win big against a division opponent that can keep pace is simply too much.
The Panthers win by four points, but the Buccaneers beat the spread.
Confidence Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7)
Los Angeles Chargers at Detroit Lions
My favorite reason why I love the second week of any season is the overreaction. I will write about it constantly in this week’s column, and it is something I actively target. That is, I ask myself, “Where did we see some overreaction?”
I’m guilty of it, too. I make snap judgements after only a single game. And I cast aside thoughts that formed over an entire offseason. The good news is