Over the past few weeks, I have mentioned that spreads are getting incredibly close to what we are seeing reflected in the final scores of games. It makes sense. We now have three-quarters of a year’s worth of data at our fingertips, and it can be concluded that, in a head-to-head game, the Vikings are roughly 13 points better than the Lions, while the Buccaneers are three points better than the Colts. It’s impressive. But it shouldn’t be surprising.
And it is definitely telling.
I always write about “reading the spreads.” It’s the job. The whole job, really. What I see and what you see sometimes differ from what the rest of the football-watching world sees. It’s important to stay grounded, and the spreads can help do that.
This week, the spreads tell another story. It’s one we haven’t seen often, this year, but has been shown often in the past. That is, the spreads need to protect those who make the odds from being over-exposed. Number are large in some matchups. Still, we see some risks being taken. They are just as enticing as ever.
This week, we have the opportunity to play both sides of the equation.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 45-37-3 (Last Week: 3-1-1)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 109-94-5 (Last Week: 12-2-2)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens
I try to approach large spreads with a few different options in my mind. The first is whether-or-not I can picture a scenario in which the underdog could win ‘outright.’ Then, look for paths to a competitive game. If either one of these conditions are met, I can justify taking the points for a large spread. Finally, I try to pinpoint why the spread is so large. Is it simply the disparity in talent? Or is perception driving the number?
We’ll start off with one near-certainty